Jihadist-driven fuel blockade pushes Mali’s junta into crisis

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - DAKAR, Nov 8 — A sluggish economy, daily attacks on fuel convoys and a loss of territorial control: Mali’s ruling junta is facing an existential crisis as a fuel blockade gradually strangles the capital Bamako and other regions.

Situation on the ground 

For weeks, jihadists from JNIM, the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, have imposed the blockade, which has paralyzed the landlocked Sahelian country’s economy.

It has forced the government to close schools, prevented harvesting in several regions and limited access to electricity.

On Monday, President Assimi Goita called on citizens to do their part, particularly by reducing unnecessary travel, while promising to “do everything possible to deliver fuel”.

For Alioune Tine, formerly the UN’s independent expert on the human rights situation in Mali, the leader’s statement was a “terrible admission of failure”.

The ruling military junta, which seized power in back-to-back coups in 2020 and 2021, had promised to stem the jihadist expansion that has plagued the country for more than a decade.

It broke ties with former western military allies, including France, partnering instead with Russian paramilitaries to fight the jihadists.

But “the Malian state no longer controls anything” within its territory, Bakary Sambe from the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute think tank told AFP. Instead, he said, it “is concentrating its forces around Bamako to secure the regime”.

And the population’s initial support for the junta “is beginning to erode in the face of the military regime’s inability to keep its security promise”, he added.

Faced with the deteriorating situation, the United States and United Kingdom announced they were withdrawning non-essential personnel from Mali at the end of October.

Several other embassies, including most recently France on Friday, have asked their citizens to leave the country.

Could Bamako fall? 

Bamako falling seems unlikely at this stage according to observers, as JNIM lacks military and governance capacity.

“I do not believe JNIM possesses the capability or intent to take Bamako at this time, though the threat it now poses to the city is unprecedented”, Charlie Werb, an analyst with Aldebaran Threat Consultants (ATC), told AFP.

According to an African diplomatic source in Bamako, the jihadists “may initially launch a harassment operation”, but would not be able to take Bamako on their own.

What is JNIM’s objective? 

JNIM is the most influential jihadist group in Mali and the “most significant threat in the Sahel”, according to the United Nations.

It wants to implement Sharia law and is acting to delegitimize Sahelian states—at both the military and political level—by positioning itself as a more credible alternative.

It indirectly governs villages via agreements tailored to different localities, claiming in its propaganda to be defending the local populations.

In recent months, JNIM has expanded its influence over a large swathe of territory—how much is not yet clear—funding itself through tax collection and kidnap for ransom.

Last week JNIM obtained “at least $50 million” for the release of two Emirati hostages and their Iranian employee, AFP learned from sources close to the negotiations.

For Sambe, the jihadists’ “strategic objective” with their blockade is to “bring down the regime”.

And one European security source told AFP that JNIM “wants to overthrow the junta and install a government with which it can negotiate, which it can force to implement its agenda”.

Dialogue with the jihadists? 

One option for the junta would be to negotiate with the jihadists.

“The government is currently seeking a truce in the blockade from the jihadists”, one local elected official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

According to another elected official, the recent appointment of a new army chief of staff, General Toumani Kone, could signal a move in this direction.

“He knows the jihadist circles,” this official told AFP. “In the past, he has tried to negotiate with them.

“He is currently relaunching negotiations with them to obtain at least a truce,” he added.

However Baba Adou, a researcher at the University of Florida, warned that by talking with JNIM, the military would undermine its entire narrative in the fight against jihadism.

“If you engage in a dialogue, you end the (premise) which the junta is based on”, he said.

Tine, the former independent UN expert, said the “collapse of the Malian state” would have “catastrophic consequences” throughout the region.

According to the Soufan Center think tank, “if Mali falls, there could be a domino effect with other governments in the region, including in Burkina Faso and/or Niger”, two other countries led by juntas. — AFP