A fragile calm in Iran masks deeper fears about the future

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - DUBAI, April 19 — Iranians striving to maintain a semblance of normal life after weeks of US and Israeli bombing and a deadly crackdown on protesters in January remain daunted by the future, as damage from airstrikes and internet cuts take a toll.

With talks expected on extending a truce and agreeing an end to the conflict, shops, restaurants and government offices have stayed open. On sunny spring mornings, city parks are busy with picnicking families and young people playing sports, while others gather at streetside cafes.

But behind such peaceful scenes, Iran’s economy is in tatters and people are fearful of a new government clampdown and angry about the destructive airstrikes.

The difficulties that spurred mass unrest in January look likely to worsen.

Iran’s foreign minister on Friday said the Strait of Hormuz was open following a ceasefire accord for Lebanon, while US President Donald Trump said he believed a deal to end the Iran war would come soon.

Fear of increased pressure as theocracy endures

“The war will end, but that’s when our real problems with the system begin. I’m very afraid that if the regime reaches an agreement with the United States, it will increase pressure on ordinary people,” a 37-year-old named Fariba who took part in the January unrest told Reuters by phone from Iran.

“People have not forgotten the regime’s crimes in January, and the system has not forgotten that people do not want it. They are holding back now because they don’t want to fight on a domestic front as well,” she said.

The bombing has killed thousands, according to official death tolls, including many at a school on the first day of the conflict.

It has also destroyed infrastructure across the country, raising the prospect of mass job layoffs.

Iran’s revolutionary theocracy looks as entrenched as ever after surviving weeks of intense bombardment and asserting control over global oil supplies.

“Iranians understood that this war is not going to topple the regime, but at the same time, it’s going to make their lives much worse economically,” said Omid Memarian, Iran analyst at independent US-based think tank Dawn.

“The military is not going to put down their guns. They are going to stay and it’s going to be bloody. It’s going to be costly with no prospect for a better future,” he added.

In well-heeled north Tehran this week, Reuters interviewed young Iranians on camera about the war and their concerns. Foreign media in Iran operate under guidelines set by the Culture and Islamic Guidance Ministry, which regulates press activity and permissions.

Mehtab, who works at a private company and asked not to use her family name, said things could be worse for Iranians given the impact of war and years of sanctions and isolation.

“I do not want to say that it is normal but as an Iranian with such a history, it is not very bad. We can live with it,” she said.

That view was not shared by Iranians Reuters reached by phone, who voiced far greater anxiety while speaking anonymously for fear of reprisals.

“Yes, people are enjoying the ceasefire for now — but what comes next? What are we supposed to do with a regime that has become even more powerful?” said Sara, 27, a private teacher, who declined to give her family name or location.

Iranians left with few options

Thousands were killed when the authorities crushed weeks of protests in January, prompting US President Donald Trump to say he would come to the aid of Iranians.

But while Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu both said early in the war that they hoped it would topple the ruling clerics, that goal faded as the bombing went on.

Anger over the crackdown meant many Iranians wanted new rulers, but soon soured on the war, Memarian said.

“I think it became more clear for many Iranians that this war is not designed, or is not aimed, at helping the Iranian people,” he said.

Neither Mehtab nor other women sitting at a cafe in north Tehran were wearing the hijab, a head covering that was mandatory for decades in Iran. Looser, public dress codes are the result of mass protests in 2022, including over women’s rights, which the authorities violently suppressed while tacitly backing off from enforcement of some dress rules.

Independent UK-based Iranian political analyst Hossein Rassam said it became clear in January that authorities would not back down again easily, and later that they would not crumble under military attack.

The war had left Iranians even more polarised than before, but with few options. “This is a moment of reckoning for Iranians because at the end of the day Iranians, especially Iranians inside the country, realise that they need to live together. There is nowhere to go,” he said.

‘Fire under the ashes’

Many fear repression could now worsen. “On the streets, women are going around without the hijab, but it’s unclear whether these kind of freedoms will continue after a deal with the United States. Pressure will 100 per cent increase, because once there is peace with Washington, the regime will no longer face the same external pressure,” Arjang, a 43-year-old father of two, told Reuters by phone from north Tehran.

The January protests brought no tangible change to people’s lives, while leading the authorities to severely restrict internet use — a blow to both businesses and ordinary people desperate for information during war.

“Even the smallest things like connecting with our family members who live outside the country is impossible,” said Faezeh, 47, as she played volleyball with friends in a north Tehran park.

Popular frustration may start to mount after the war ends and people are less afraid of being labelled as traitors, said Memarian. “There is a lot of fire under the ashes,” he said. — Reuters