Sixteen days before the November 3 elections, Democrat Joe Biden is ahead of the Republican president by nine percentage points nationwide, according to poll rates published by the RealClearPolitics website, but in the United States, candidates win the White House through the commission Female elector, not popular vote.
And in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, but he won enough states to collect the votes he needed to become president, and this year, six states are seen as essential to reaching the White House: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania andMichigan.
But if the polls are correct, Biden appears to be in a better position in this regard, although he is sometimes within the margin of error, and his progress ranges from 1.7 percentage points in Florida to 7.2 in Michigan.
Where were the mistakes in 2016?
On the eve of the election, the polls correctly predicted a slight lead for Clinton nationally, but she “missed some of the swinging midwestern states” that Trump ultimately won, says Chris Jackson of the Ipsos Center for Public Affairs.
One of the reasons for this was the lower representation in the survey samples of the white population without university degrees who voted for Trump, and most polling institutes indicate that they have made corrections to their general methodology to exclude such errors in the upcoming elections.
This time, polls are conducted with greater interest and more frequently in critical states that did not see enough polls last time. In addition, pollsters are indicating that the results are consistent this time. Since the spring, Biden has led by a rate that has never dropped below 4 percentage points.
Ultimately, in a country so polarized, there are far fewer undecided voters who might turn the tide at the last minute.
Are there voters who have reservations about their preference for Trump?
Some feel that there are voters who are reluctant to declare in the polls their preference for Trump due to the controversy surrounding him, and Trump said that “the polls were wrong last time and are more wrong this time.”
The Trafalgar Group, the polling firm favored by Republicans and using an approach that takes into account the possibility of voter conservatism, was among the few who predicted Trump’s 2016 victory in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but this time it favors Biden in critical states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Four years ago, Trump was just a new businessman in the political arena. Thus, it is usually difficult for the organizers of the polls to evaluate this type of candidate, and Jackson comments on that by saying, “Everyone has opinion about him now, so not everyone is surprised to the same degree in Donald Trump.”
What if surveys get it wrong?
According to calculations made by The New York Times, Biden would win even if the current polls in each state are as wrong as they were four years ago.
New York Times journalist Nate Cone recently wrote that “according to our average polls, Biden is more likely to win in Texas, which will give him more than 400 electorate votes, than President Trump is likely to win in traditionally swing states such as Pennsylvania and Nevada.”
Pollsters and analysts are still cautious in pointing out that voting intentions cannot suffice as expectations, that there is a margin of error, and that election campaigns can undergo shifts, as the outcome of the 2016 presidential election was likely decided at the last minute.
It is noteworthy that 16 days before that election date, the Five Thirty Eight site favored Clinton’s victory by 86 percent, which is repeated with Biden now, and in the United States, voter registration changes dramatically, which makes it especially difficult to predict turnout rates. .
Trump indicates when addressing his supporters at his election rallies that the momentum is in his favor, but will this be translated into the ballot box? Will Democrats who weren’t enthusiastic about Clinton, who initially thought she had already won, line up behind the faded Biden to unseat Trump?
How will the epidemic affect?
“We will have a mail vote and an early vote, which will be at historic levels,” Jackson says, “We don’t know what the impact of that will be.” There are many complex factors that will overlap, and these are the things that are difficult for the surveys to calculate. ”
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