A report by Jadwa Investment Company on global oil markets: Third Quarter 2021 showed that the average price of Brent crude reached about $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2021, an increase of 7 percent, on a quarterly basis, and 71 percent over its level in the same period of the year. the past.
Brent crude prices continued to recover in the fourth quarter, with the index rising an additional 10 percent from September levels. Although some supply problems in the American Gulf contributed to raising prices during the past two months, the recovery came primarily as a result of demand. He pointed out that the launch of vaccination operations around the world helped ease restrictions on movement, and contributed to raising the consumption of transportation fuel (jet fuel and gasoline) to approach pre-pandemic levels, at the same time, the huge rises in natural gas prices prompted gas buyers to search for Alternatives, where crude oil has become one of the alternatives to gas in electricity generation.
Looking ahead, there is a high probability that oil prices will rise further in the near term, if the use of crude oil to replace gas accelerates during the winter months. And if this acceleration is coupled with any unplanned interruption in crude oil production (from Libya, for example), it may push oil prices towards the $100 per barrel level.
However, such a high level of prices will likely push OPEC and its allies to move and increase oil production above the currently scheduled levels to create stability in oil markets, and will mostly encourage a moderate rise in shale oil production in the near term.
The report added, and since “OPEC” actually expects a decline, on a quarterly basis, in global oil demand (by 2 percent) during the first quarter of 2022 (before it reaches its highest level ever by the fourth quarter of 2022), this will lead to an increase Weakening the possibility of oil prices staying at $100 for a long time (if they reach this level) after the near term. And so, while we acknowledge that there is a risk that actual prices will come in higher than our estimate of Brent crude for 2021 as a whole at $67 a barrel, we have kept our Brent forecast for 2022 as a whole unchanged at $65 a barrel, for now.
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