India, China and the Bay of Bengal: How Bangladesh’s election could shift South Asia’s power balance

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Bangladeshi workers load empty ballot boxes onto a truck at the Election Commission building in Dhaka on February 7, 2026, ahead of the upcoming national elections. — AFP pic

NEW DELHI, Feb 9 — Bangladesh’s elections next week could reshape South Asia’s balance of power, as Beijing seeks to consolidate influence and ties with India falter, analysts say.

The February 12 poll will be the nation’s first since a student-led uprising toppled former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime in August 2024.

India’s sheltering of Hasina — despite extradition requests — has angered Dhaka’s interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, which has deepened engagement with China and Pakistan.

The Muslim-majority nation of 170 million people maintained strong trade and defence ties with China under Hasina, but New Delhi was Dhaka’s pre-eminent partner, an arrangement that analysts say is shifting.

Beijing pivot

“The interim government in Bangladesh, and a future government, is really pivoting to China,” said Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow at the US-based Council on Foreign Relations.

“Bangladesh now has become central to China’s strategic thinking regarding the Bay of Bengal, and China is increasingly confident that Bangladesh will play a pro-China role in this strategy.”

Yunus’ first state visit was to China, signalling a strategic shift.

The two countries in January inked a key new defence agreement for a drone plant at a proposed northern airbase near India.

“Whatever the outcomes of the elections, there is an irreversible possibility of further deepening Bangladesh-China relations,” Delwar Hussain of the University of Dhaka said.

‘Unremitting hostility’

Conversely, New Delhi and Dhaka have regularly sparred since Hasina’s ouster.

India’s foreign ministry in December condemned what it called “unremitting hostility against minorities”, pointing to the violence against Hindus in Bangladesh.

Police say around 70 members of Bangladesh’s minority communities were killed in sectarian violence in 2025.

Dhaka has accused India of exaggerating the scale of the violence. But there have also been sporadic efforts at reconciliation.

India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in January visited Dhaka for the funeral of former leader Khaleda Zia, whose Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is widely seen as a frontrunner in the election.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also sent a condolence message to her son Tarique Rahman, 60, who is seen as a potential prime minister if the BNP wins.

But things unravelled when a Bangladeshi cricketer was removed from the Indian Premier League after Hindu right-wing protests, leading Bangladesh to withdraw from the T20 World Cup in India.

Bangladesh Army personnel gather at the National Stadium in Dhaka on February 5, 2026, as they prepare for the upcoming country's general election on February 12. — AFP pic

‘Stability over disruption’

Praveen Donthi of the International Crisis Group said both sides are likely to be pragmatic.

“Both New Delhi and Dhaka are fully aware of the costs of not addressing the deteriorating relations,” he said.

Dhaka has also deepened engagement with Pakistan — India’s arch-enemy — resuming direct flights in January after more than a decade.

Experts say a new government will likely continue to normalise ties with Islamabad without undermining relations with New Delhi.

“The new dispensation will likely prioritise stability over disruption,” Donthi said.

Retired diplomat Hyumayun Kabir predicted ties could stabilise under an elected government, especially if the BNP wins.

But even Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamist party once sharply at odds with India, has projected “a kind of pragmatic realism” in its campaign, he said.

Despite heated rhetoric, the material core of the India-Bangladesh relationship remains.

This file picture shows students with black cloth tied over their faces holding placards during a silent protest to condemn the lynching of Hindu garment worker Dipu Chandra Das near the Raju Memorial Sculpture at Dhaka University in Dhaka on December 21, 2025. — AFP pic

Trade has stayed stable, and only one Hasina-era bilateral deal — for Indian tugboats — has been scrapped.

“China delivers infrastructure in a way India cannot,” said former Indian diplomat Dilip Sinha, who has served as New Delhi’s deputy high commissioner in Bangladesh.

“But India provides things Bangladesh critically needs — power and yarn for the garment industry.”

Analysts suggested that inevitably stronger ties with China also need not mean hostilities with India.

“It is not an either-or situation,” Kabir said. “Both relationships can thrive at the same time.” — AFP