EU issues ultimatum to Poland and Hungary: dispute over budget and...

“We need an agreement today or tomorrow at the latest, or clear signals from Hungary and Poland,” said a high-ranking EU diplomat on Monday. If that does not happen, “we will move on to scenario B”. This means that the other EU countries will reissue the Corona package either with the help of the instrument of enhanced cooperation or within the framework of a multilateral agreement. Poland and Hungary would then go away empty-handed.

At the summit on Thursday and Friday, the showdown was initially expected. But now, according to the will of the EU leadership, the topic should no longer be discussed in any major way there. Poland and Hungary would have to give in beforehand, said the diplomat. If that does not happen, preparations have to be made “that go in a different direction.”

“Nuclear option” becomes EU policy

Warsaw and Budapest are currently blocking the next seven-year budget with their veto and thus also the EU’s corona reconstruction package. You want to force the rest of the EU to drop the planned rule of law mechanism. From 2021 onwards, it should make it possible to punish violations of the rule of law by cutting EU funds.

In return, the idea of ​​removing the Corona package from the overall budget and relaunching it without Poland and Hungary was initially suggested by hardliners as a last resort to force Warsaw and Budapest to give in. The fact that this scenario, also known as the »nuclear option«, is now becoming the official line of the EU not only marks a clear escalation of the dispute. It also shows that Brussels is losing patience with Hungary and Poland. After the national conservative governments of both countries have systematically switched off critical media, undermined the independence of the judiciary and harassed minorities and critical organizations in recent years, the EU is apparently no longer ready to make further compromises – but to fight the matter out.

If the other 25 countries get serious and reissue the 750 billion euro Corona package among themselves, Hungary would not only lose six billion and Poland around 24 billion euros, which they would get from the program according to previous plans. Their leverage, which consisted of blackmailing the other EU countries with the plight of the corona crisis countries, would also be taken out of their hands.

It is true that Hungary and Poland would still have the veto of the regular seven-year budget of the EU, which at 1,074 billion euros is even more extensive than the Corona package. But here too, Brussels threatens to take tough measures. The Commission is already working on an emergency budget for 2021. In an interview with the group leaders of the EU Parliament, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently stated, according to participants, that her authority would have 50 to 75 percent of those that are particularly important for Poland and Hungary next year Could withhold structural funding.

Poland’s head of government speaks power

Budapest and Warsaw, however, have so far been unimpressed, at least rhetorically. Both countries would maintain their veto on the budget, said Hungary’s Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó on Monday after a meeting with his Polish counterpart. “We have confirmed that we stand by each other,” said Szijjártó in a video posted on Facebook. Attempts to break this alliance will “give no room”.

Such a break, however, had recently signaled Poland’s Vice Prime Minister Jarosław Gowin: He had indicated that Poland could abandon its veto if the EU provided the rule of law mechanism with an additional declaration that would ensure that it would not be used unjustifiably against individual countries.

Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro’s camp had a different opinion. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki then felt compelled to speak a word of power: In the tense negotiating situation, Poland was only allowed to speak with one voice, said his advisor Krzysztof Szczerski. “There must be no suggestions from anyone else now.”

In Budapest, too, people think little of the idea of ​​the supplementary declaration. “That you add some explanation as to how to put some little memo on a wall newspaper with a pushpin – that won’t work,” Orbán told a Hungarian radio station. At the same time, he sharply criticized Manfred Weber, the head of the European People’s Party in the EU Parliament – to which Orbán’s Fidesz also belongs.

Orbán accuses Weber of “donkey” – and offers light to leave the faction

The CSU politician Weber had said that no country that adheres to the law should be afraid of the rule of law mechanism – and if necessary could turn to the European Court of Justice. “Everyone is telling some kind of donkey. That goes for Mr Weber too, ”said Orbán. “The Hungarians may not be as many in number as the Germans, but we are not stupid and we are not naive.”

On Sunday Orbán went a step further and offered Weber a kind of parliamentary exit light. Fidesz’s membership in the EPP has been suspended for some time; Most recently, the faction in the EU Parliament called for the expulsion of Tamás Deutsch, the head of the Fidesz delegation, because he had brought Weber close to Nazi ideology. In the letter to Weber, which SPIEGEL has received, Orbán is now offering a “new form of cooperation”, similar to the alliance between the EPP and the European Democrats (ED) that existed from 1999 to 2009.

What Orbán intended with this was initially unclear. The main aim of the EPP-ED alliance was to bind the British Conservative Party, which was part of the ED, to the EPP. The exit of the Tories from the group in 2009 was, in the opinion of many in the EPP, the first step towards Brexit. So does Orbán want to scare the EPP with the specter of Hungary’s exit from the EU? Maybe, says an EPP insider. Orbán might just want to give the impression that he is in control of the event – and that everyone will talk about him for a few days.
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