The tension is explosive. The US tradition of humbly accepting the will of the people has been thrown aside. But that is a common result of close elections around the world. What happened there can tell us what’s next.
Windows is boarded up. Walls were built. Checkpoints are available.
This is not normal for the United States. But it is for divided states.
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Of 178 presidential elections worldwide between 1874 and 2012, 38 were controversial. Most of them sparked conflicts and constitutional crises. Some led to civil war.
According to political scientist Victor Hernandez-Huerta, this is the price candidates have to lose in order to make powerful concessions – if not power itself. “I call this the ‘blackmail strategy’ of losing parties and candidates: losers threaten stability improve after the elections if they don’t get any benefits, ”said Dr. Hernandez-Huerta.
But it comes at a high price.
Universal College London political analyst Nadia Hilliard warns democracies that live or die from perception of legitimacy.
“Regardless of the outcome, significant parts of the US would view its new leader as illegitimate. Whether Trump or Joe Biden end up as their 46th president, millions of Americans will see the outcome as the “end of democracy,” she said.
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And there’s an explosive new ingredient to the mix: COVID-19.
The pandemic, say analysts, has put the choice on a tinderbox of immense fear and uncertainty. Life. Death. Ways of life. All of them have already changed – for the worse.
Anger in the air
Fox News host and outspoken Trump ally Tucker Carlson said the post-election mood in Manhattan and Washington was “unsettling.”
“We’re in a different place and what impresses me is how quickly and passively we have accepted it,” Carlson told his audience. “This is a brave country full of brave and decent people. Why should we resign ourselves to the assumption that we have to crouch and protect ourselves from violence? ”
That assumption, says Dr. Hernandez-Huerta, is based on the public perception of crises. And candidates often use the idea of election error and fraud to motivate their followers. Your motives can be pure. Or not.
“Those who question election results in such circumstances are likely to seek something other than electoral reform,” he writes.
According to Universal College London political analyst Nadia Hilliard, such manufactured crises damage democracies to the core.
“The apocalyptic tenor of the election reflects deeper, fundamental challenges to the legitimacy of American democracy, for which Trump is more a symptom than a cause,” she writes.
While election day itself was virtually non-violent, allegations of electoral fraud continue to inflame tensions. And an out-of-control pandemic that is wreaking havoc on the nation’s economy and morale.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley believes that the threat of violence remains very real. So real that he took the unprecedented step of publicly swearing that the vast U.S. federal military would not interfere. Nor would it do anything about who moved into the White House or not.
EVERYTHING FAIR IN LOVE AND WAR?
The key to democracy is not just the constitutional rule. It is the grace of his people and the statecraft of his politicians to accept defeat. Because in contrast to monarchies, dictatorships or one-party states, they will have another chance at power in just a few years.
“After the votes have been freely cast and counted fairly, the losing candidate or party accepts the results as legitimate and concedes the winner,” writes Dr. Hernandez-Huerta. “US President Donald Trump has threatened to end this tradition.”
Precedents have been set for what to do in these problematic scenarios.
It has happened several times in the United States.
Most recently, Democratic candidate Al Gore questioned the outcome of the 2000 elections. The decisive state was Florida. This state was ruled by the brother of his opponent George W. Bush.
The result depended on a few pieces of paper dangling in holes in the holes, which were derogatoryly referred to as “hanging chads.” The Republican-dominated Supreme Court ordered the recount to be suspended. Instead of pushing the issue, Mr. Gore stated: “For the sake of our unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession.”
But the times have changed. Things are different when it comes to national sentiment and political dogma.
“A controversial presidential election would lead the United States into uncharted territory,” warns Dr. Hernandez-Huerta. Given the enormous potential risks, why are presidential candidates so often willing to put aside the democratic tradition and reject unfavorable election results?
He says that political science offers one possible answer: “blackmail”.
DEEP FEAR
The coronavirus pandemic was the focus of the presidential campaign. Mr. Biden made his management an important issue. Mr Trump made the layoff a regular part of his maskless public appearances.
But the virus doesn’t care about politics. It has only one goal: to reproduce. And it wins. Big time.
There have been about 10 million cases and 240,000 deaths in the United States. These numbers continue to accelerate upwards. On the eve of the election alone, 93,000 new victims were registered.
Like unemployment, illness and death are quickly becoming dramatic events for all US families.
And analysts say voters reacted with a mixture of fear, belief and indignation.
Mr. Trump insists that the virus will go “like magic”. Mr. Biden points to the numbers and says, “I told you.”
However, the effects of COVID are measurable outside the ballot box. Economic uncertainty is increasing. Public confidence is falling. Businesses prepare for bad times.
Voters are already suffering from COVID-induced cabin fever.
And many of those voters are packing heat after an extraordinary gun frenzy amid widespread scenes of civil unrest.
“I think you, among a good percentage of Americans, are afraid that something bad is about to happen,” said Ryan Williams, professor of criminal justice at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “And they don’t know what that is. You don’t know what that looks like. ”
MANUFACTURING CRISIS
American voters know there is a problem. You don’t agree on what it is.
“While polarization is hardly a new feature of the American political landscape, the reluctance to accept the opponent as legitimate is new,” writes Dr. Hilliard. “This challenge to a common sense of legitimacy hits the core of the country’s democratic framework.”
All branches and levels of government are under stress. Norms were thrown aside. Instead of competence and consensus, individual authority is exercised.
Above all, however, the concept of remaining loyal to democracy over loyalty to one’s own party has been undermined.
Accountability. Transparency. Debate. Compromise. When exercised within a democracy, they give the losing parties a strong say – and hope they can convince the swinging voters of their way of thinking in the next election. It’s called “loyal opposition”.
Take them away and there will be a clash of immovable dogmas.
National stability and security are armed. Concessions are required. In the worst case, coups are initiated.
“If the rules underlying the fundamental institutions on which democracy is based are disregarded and rewritten, the basis for loyal opposition for both sides will be undermined,” says Dr. Hilliard.
“And although the partisan jibes that undermine a feeling of loyal opposition preceded Trump decades, his presidency forced a radical question for everyone: will I accept the result if my opponent wins?”
ART OF OFFER
Not all presidential crises are coups.
“Losers reject unfavorable election results in order to strengthen their negotiating positions after the elections and to make political concessions to the winners,” says Dr. Hernandez-Huerta.
A current example is Indonesia.
Megawati Sukarnoputri lost the vote massively – around 34 percent. But the result has been challenged. Legal proceedings have been initiated. Significant concessions have been made by the new government in exchange for a peaceful transition.
The scene is prepared for such a transaction in exchange for the White House.
“The United States has a long history of peaceful and democratic transfers of power, but it is not immune to electoral blackmail. If Trump loses, he can opt for the same self-serving playbook that 21 percent of lost presidential candidates have followed in the past four decades – and sacrifice the country’s political stability for his own political gain, ”warns Dr. Hernandez-Huerta.
Mail-in ballots have been the target of alleged “problems and inconsistencies” since the beginning of the year. This foundation of the public psyche is now bearing fruit.
“In other words, there is reason to fear that the president or members of his party might take the country’s political stability hostage in order to make concessions to the Democrats,” he predicts.
What do Republicans want so badly that they risk national stability?
Given the immense COVID-induced tensions, why should Democrats dig their heels into their heels?
“One possibility would be (a demand) that the Democrats not grab the Supreme Court in response to the hasty appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett,” writes Dr. Hernandez-Huerta. “Such a concession would preserve an important part of Trump’s legacy and ensure that the court remains ideologically conservative for years to come.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer @ JamieSeidel
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