Could Trump buy Greenland? How Greenland’s election could affect his Arctic ambitions

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Fishing boats are anchored in Nuuk port, Greenland, February 5, 2025. Along with defence and shipping, extracting Greenland's deposits of uranium, lithium and rare earths on a much larger scale has drawn renewed interest from global powers to the island, most of which is covered in a gigantic ice sheet, has few roads and is battered by unforgiving weather. — Reuters pic

COPENHAGEN, March 9 — Greenland will vote on March 11 in a general election just a week after US President Donald Trump reiterated his interest in the Arctic island, inviting its people to join the United States but taking a more conciliatory tone than in previous comments.

A movement in Greenland for independence from Denmark, which began in the 1970s, has gained momentum in recent months. A win for political parties that favour quick independence could pave the way for more US influence.

What does Greenland want?

Relations between Greenland and Denmark have been strained after revelations of historical mistreatment of Greenlanders under colonial rule. However, Trump’s interest in making the island part of the United States has prompted Denmark to accelerate work to improve its ties with Greenland. Opinion polls show that a majority of Greenland’s inhabitants support independence, but they are divided over the timing and potential impact on living standards.

Trump’s interest has shaken the status quo in Greenland and, combined with the growing Inuit pride, has led some of the island’s 57,000 residents to view this month’s election as a historic chance to free Greenland from Danish influence.

However, many Greenlanders warn against acting rashly — fearing Greenland could become worse off and expose itself to the United States if it too quickly seeks independence from Denmark. Since 2019, politicians on the island have repeatedly said they are interested in strengthening cooperation and trade with the United States. However, Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede, who has stepped up a push for independence, has stressed the island is not for sale and that only its people should decide their future.

Houses light up Nuuk's old harbor, Greenland, February 10, 2025. Indigenous identity is seeing a revival in Greenland ahead of a March 11 general election called after US President Donald Trump said he wanted to acquire the strategically located Arctic island. — Reuters pic

Why does Trump want Greenland?

Greenland’s strategic location and resources could benefit the US It lies along the shortest route from Europe to North America, vital for the US ballistic missile warning system.

The US has expressed interest in expanding its existing military presence on the island, including placing radars there to monitor the waters between the island, Iceland and Britain, which are a gateway for Russian navy vessels and nuclear submarines. The island, whose capital Nuuk is closer to New York than the Danish capital Copenhagen, boasts mineral, oil and natural gas wealth, but development has been slow.

Asked for comment, a White House official said on Thursday: “Greenland has ample supply of rare earth minerals that will power the next generation of America’s economy.”

So far, though, Greenland’s economy has remained reliant on fishing, which accounts for over 95 per cent of exports, and annual subsidies from Denmark, which cover roughly half of the public budget.

In total, Denmark spends just under US$1 billion (RM4.4 billion) each year on Greenland, or US$17,500 for each inhabitant.

The US consulate in Nuuk, Greenland, on March 7, 2025. US President Donald Trump has strained relations with Denmark by repeatedly signalling that he wants control over Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory which will hold legislative elections on March 11. — AFP pic

What is the current US presence?

The US military maintains a permanent presence at the Pituffik air base in Greenland’s northwest.

A 1951 agreement between the United States and Denmark established a US right to move around freely and construct military bases in Greenland as long as Denmark and Greenland are notified.

Historically, Denmark has accommodated the US because Copenhagen does not have the capability to defend Greenland, and because of US security guarantees to Denmark through Nato, according to Kristian Soeby Kristensen, senior researcher at Copenhagen University’s Centre for Military Studies.

Greenland’s mining sector has seen very limited US investment. The mining companies operating in Greenland are mostly Australian, Canadian or British.

This aerial view shows snow-covered buildings in Nuuk, Greenland, on March 7, 2025. Greenland, the autonomous Danish territory, will hold legislative elections on March 11. — AFP pic

What is Greenland’s status now?

The island, a former colony of Denmark, became a formal territory of the Nordic kingdom in 1953 and is subject to the Danish constitution.

In 2009, the island was granted broad self-governing autonomy, including the right to declare independence from Denmark through a referendum.

Under the 2009 law, Greenland’s parliament, Inatsisartut, can invoke a provision that would have Denmark and Greenland begin negotiations about achieving full independence.

The people of Greenland would need to endorse independence through a referendum, and an independence agreement between Denmark and Greenland would also require consent from the Danish parliament.

Could Trump buy Greenland?

According to Ulrik Pram Gad, senior researcher and expert on Greenland, the idea of buying Greenland is based on a misunderstanding of international law and the principle of self-determination, which gives people the right to choose their own political status. Trump has declined to rule out the use of military or economic means to gain control of Greenland. Vice President JD Vance, speaking to Fox News, has dismissed the use of military force.

A child plays with ropes ahead of the March 11 general election, near Nuuk's old harbour, Greenland, March 7, 2025. — Reuters pic

What if Greenland becomes independent?

If Greenland became independent, it could choose to become associated with the US without becoming US territory.

The island could form a so-called “free association” with the United States that would replace Danish subsidies with US support and protection in return for military rights, a set-up similar to the Marshall Islands, Micronesia and Palau.

While there is a push in Greenland to be independent from Denmark, Greenlanders are not interested in a new colonial master, opinion polls show.

Greenlanders, who enjoy a Nordic-style welfare model including universal healthcare and free education, would likely want to make sure they don’t become worse off economically before holding an independence referendum, according to Gad, the researcher.

What does Denmark say?

When Trump offered to buy the island in 2019, during his first presidential term, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rejected the idea and called it “absurd”.

Asked about Trump’s renewed interest in January, Frederiksen said Denmark needed to cooperate closely with the US, but stressed that Greenland should determine its future. — Reuters