Control of the Senate is in place on Tuesday with Democrats armed with record-breaking fundraising war crates, optimistic about moving multiple seats, and Republicans working hard to protect it as a firewall from a blue wave.
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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has confirmed that the GOP majority is at stake and that so many Republicans are playing defense in this election.
Twelve GOP incumbents have competitions Tuesday while only two Democrats are in danger.
“It’s a 50:50 proposal,” McConnell said on Wednesday of the odds of keeping the Senate red. “We are very exposed. This is a huge Republican class. … There are dogfights all over the country. ”
The Republicans are fighting for a slim 53-47 majority. Democrats need three seats net and the White House to win the majority back – or four seats if President Trump is re-elected.
The Cook Political Report Democratic projects will win between two and seven seats. If it’s only two, the Republicans are still in control.
Another impartial election research firm, Inside Elections, has a rosier outlook for Democrats with four to six-seat net earnings – enough to win a majority.
And FiveThirtyEight’s election predictions also showed that Democrats would win the majority by 77 to 100 shots.
“Democrats are a favorite at this point,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate editor for the Cook Political Report Fox News. „[There are] 12 Republican-held seats which are only competitive for two for Democrats. Republicans would always start at a disadvantage in this cycle.
The places where Democrats have their best pick-ups are against Sens. Cory Gardner in Colorado, Martha McSally in Arizona, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, and Susan Collins in Maine.
But election analysts see several other opportunities for Democrats to expand their profits, and it will depend in large part on how well President Trump does in their states.
An erosion of Trump’s support could be enough for a Democrat to win in a traditionally red state. The Democrats were backed by record-breaking fundraising drives. Jaime Harrison of South Carolina raised $ 57 million in the pre-election quarter to help Senator Lindsey Graham, RS.C.
The so-called races in the Senate are against Sens. Steve Daines in Montana, Joni Ernst in Iowa and David Perdue in Georgia. Democrats also face Graham in South Carolina. on a vacant seat in Kansas to replace Senator Pat Roberts; and in Georgia, Senator Kelly Loeffler is facing a huge special election in the jungle.
There is an incredible amount at stake in Georgia for the two Senate seats that could be critical to Senate control.
In the special election, 20 candidates are fighting to fill the remainder of Senator Johnny Isakson’s term in office. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler, co-owner of the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream, to hold the seat until the election. She is in an uphill battle over the GOP vote with Rep. Doug Collins, R-Ga. Meanwhile, the Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, leads the field of Democrats.
Anyone is unlikely to get 50% of the vote in this race, which means the top two drivers will head off for a tie-off race on January 5th.
In the regularly scheduled Georgia race, Perdue is practically linked to Democrat Jon Ossoff, a media company executive who previously lost a Georgia congressional race. If neither Perdue nor Ossoff get more than 50% of the vote on Tuesday, they would go to a runoff on January 5 without the libertarian candidate Shane Hazel on the ballot.
So if Senate control is a cliffhanger after Tuesday, the outcome could potentially depend on two runoff elections decided two days after the new Senate was sworn in on Jan. 3.
“It’s pretty clear that there will be at least one vacancy on Jan. 3 and there could well be two,” Jacob Rubashkin, a reporter / analyst for Inside Elections, told an impartial newsletter in Washington, DC, and maybe these are for them Senate majority is crucial. ”
Senator John Cornyn in Texas and Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska also compete in two traditionally red states. While they are still preferred to win re-election, they can be vulnerable if Trump’s support collapses in a blue wave.
“There’s a chance this night could be very, very bad for Republicans,” Rubashkin told Fox News. “There is also the possibility that it is bad, but it is not catastrophic. And I think we are far less likely to get any result in between.
“There are a number of Republican seats where when the president’s support wears off – even a little – everyone leaves,” he added.
The Democrat most likely to lose on Tuesday is Alabama Senator Doug Jones, who faces a formidable challenger in former college football coach Tommy Tuberville. Jones was surprisingly elected to the Senate from a deep red state during a 2017 special election by defeating Republican Roy Moore, who was charged with sexual assault and misconduct against teenage girls.
Republicans also see Michigan as their other potential chance, but it’s much harder to beat Senator Gary Peters, D-Mich., In a state where Joe Biden has a good shot at the win and Peters is consistently ahead on poll averages . Republican businessman and Army veteran John James lost to Senator Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., In 2018, and he plans to pick up the support of Biden voters on Tuesday.
Peters battled Biden and former President Barack Obama on Saturday, stressing that the road to a Democratic victory in the Senate and White House runs right through Michigan. He urged Democrats not to have the same regrets as they did in 2016 when Trump won the state by less than 11,000 votes.
“We have a real chance of getting a majority in the United States Senate,” Peters said in Flint on Saturday. “But we have to win here. We have to hold this place. ”
Democrats have a real chance of cleaning the House, White House and Senate on Tuesday, but of the three political handicap projects, the hardest for Democrats to turn the Senate over is.
“This is still the one that isn’t that solid,” Taylor said of projections from Democrats taking control of the Senate.
Part of the reason for this is that control of the upper chamber depends on Trump’s ability to hold states he won in 2016 and maintain compelling profit margins in those red states.
The voting for shared tickets has decreased. In 2016, every single Senate race went to the same party as the President’s race in that state.
And since 2012, 122 of 139 races in the Senate have been the same as the presidential race in her state, Taylor noted.
Democrats run a campaign to protect access to health care during the coronavirus pandemic and had the money to compete in traditionally red states backed by grassroots activism and donations after Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death. They believe that they have many avenues to majority.
“The Democrats have broadened the map to bring in more Republican seats with strong challengers fueled by record-breaking grassroots enthusiasm and focused on issues that matter to the voters like access to health care,” said Helen Kalla, director for quick response from the Democrats Senate Campaign Committee. Vulnerable Republican incumbents cannot escape their toxic bowel protection voting records for those with pre-existing conditions and enable the Trump administration’s catastrophic pandemic. The voters are ready to send a new leadership to Washington. ”
Democrats run a campaign to protect access to health care during the coronavirus pandemic and had the money to compete in traditionally red states backed by grassroots activism and donations after Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death. They believe that they have many avenues to majority.
“The Democrats have expanded the map to include more Republican seats with strong challengers fueled by record-breaking grassroots enthusiasm and focused on issues that matter to the voters, such as access to health care,” said Helen Kalla, director for quick response from the Democrats Senate Campaign Committee. Vulnerable Republican incumbents cannot escape their toxic bowel protection voting records for those with pre-existing conditions and enable the Trump administration’s catastrophic pandemic. The voters are ready to send a new leadership to Washington. ”
Mr McConnell has warned that if Democrats win, they will embark on radical reforms like packing up the Supreme Court, ending the filibuster, and creating two new states in Washington, DC and Puerto Rico.
“If you look at the Democratic Party today, you should be scared,” McConnell said on Wednesday.
“We fight for our way of life,” he added. “We fight for the constitution.”
This article was published by Fox News and reproduced with permission.
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