Prediction, polls, Trump versus Biden who will win

Prediction, polls, Trump versus Biden who will win
Prediction, polls, Trump versus Biden who will win
More than 80 million people voted in person or by mail before election day on November 3 – almost 60 percent of the total number of votes cast in 2016, according to the US election project of the University of Florida.

The record turnout suggests a similarly unprecedented final vote this year. In an election, both Republicans and Democrats are named as the most important in United States history.

As of Thursday, Democratic candidate Joe Biden was the clear favorite to win – if you believe the polls.

According to national polls, the former Vice President has a lead of 7.4 percentage points Really clear policyand is ahead in five of the six main battlefield states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina, but is bound in Arizona.

The survey analytics website FiveThirtyEight offers President Donald only an 11 percent chance of winning. “At this point in time, President Trump needs a big mistake in his favor if he is to win,” the website said.

“Though the mistake doesn’t have to be as big as you might think if you just look at national surveys. Take Pennsylvania, the state that our forecast currently believes is most likely to make the choice. Biden doesn’t have much extra padding on polls there, so a poll error on the order of 2016 could deliver status to Trump. ”

Indeed, Mr Trump has vowed to once again defy polls, which also believed Hillary Clinton would win in 2016, and predicted that he would join a huge “red wave” of voters for a second term, that were not covered by traditional surveys.

Political observers have reiterated that there appears to be a similar enthusiasm gap as the President’s rallies, which attract thousands of supporters, are in stark contrast to Mr Biden’s more humble audience.

Both candidates focused their efforts on Florida on Thursday, with Mr Trump speaking of his post-lockdown economic recovery and hammering his message to get past COVID-19.

“They won’t allow you anything,” he said at a rally in Tampa, referring to Democrats. “We will never lock again. We are open to business. ”

Mr Biden spoke ahead of a drive-in rally in Broward County north of Miami Thursday, the first of his two rallies in Florida. “I’m not going to close the economy,” he said. “I will not close the country. But I’ll turn off the virus. ”

Mr Trump cannot lose Florida if he is to be re-elected – he narrowly defeated Ms. Clinton in Florida in 2016, but a poll published Thursday by NBC News / Marist put Mr Biden 51:47 ahead of the state.

The poll found that Biden had a dominant lead among black voters (84-14), women (57-41) and independents (55-41), and was also favored by seniors (53-46) who made up a large portion of the population Voters make up voters in the Sunshine State.

Florida ranks third with New York in the total number of votes with 29 out of a total of 538. Candidates must win 270 votes to win.

Almost 7.4 million people have already voted in Florida, according to the US election project, more than half of all registered voters in the state. Democrats currently lead Republicans with 40.5 to 37.7 percent.

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– with AFP

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