Towards the presidential election | Few undecided to convince before...

Managing the pandemic? Climatic changes ? Racial tensions? All these subjects are on the menu of the second and last presidential debate, Thursday evening. But for Josh Clinton, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, voters will not be watching the debate to learn more about the two candidates’ platform. They will do it just to see the show.

Judith Lachapelle
Press

“It’s not a scientific observation, but I think people are exhausted by this campaign,” said the survey analysis expert, reached in Nashville, Tennessee. “So, I think if people watch the debate, it won’t be because they think they will learn something from it, but because they want to see if something crazy is going to happen… And I don’t really know what that means for the state of our democracy! ”

One thing is certain: two weeks before the official vote date, there are far fewer undecided voters to convince this year than there were in 2016. “Less than 10% of voters are undecided. , up from 20% in 2016, ”says Josh Clinton. “We could see it in particular by the visibility of third parties. The two 2016 candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, were each quite unpopular with many voters who had turned to other proposals. “It’s different this year,” says Josh Clinton. People know Donald Trump, they know Joe Biden, they’ve had a hard time. ”

So far, according to the United States Elections Project, 41 million Americans have already voted in advance, which represents 30% of the total participation in 2016.

This second debate between the presidential candidates should have actually been the third – the October 15 debate, which was to take place virtually due to Donald Trump’s COVID-19 infection, was canceled by the independent commission responsible for organizing them after the Republicans refused to submit to this formula. This time, the two candidates will be present in the same room, and have both agreed to be tested for COVID-19 before the event.

But the biggest change made by the committee is that of the management of the microphones: to avoid a cacophony like that which marked the exchanges between the two candidates during the first debate, the microphone will be closed when the candidate does not have the floor . Everyone will have two minutes at the start of each segment to explain their point of view, before both mics are turned on at the same time to allow a discussion.

Attitude of candidates

How will this formula modify the attitude of the candidates? Nicola Gutgold, professor of communications at Penn State University, will observe this closely. “A lot of people pay attention to the content of the debate,” she said. But I think what is most telling is not so much what the candidates say, but also the non-verbal communication. ”

Donald Trump, she notes, “seems more at ease in an arena, in front of a rally, where he can shout, gesticulate, shock. That’s his style ”. But the televisual frame of the debate is very small in comparison.

This time, “if Donald Trump has to convince undecided voters that he deserves another term, it’s his chance to do so,” said M^me Gutgold. He should also, according to her, show that he knows how to follow the rules of the debate. “For Joe Biden, this is an opportunity to highlight the failures of his rival and to clearly explain what he wants to do differently to manage the pandemic, to help families. ”

“But to be honest, it’s getting late,” observes Josh Clinton. “There are only two weeks left before the vote, it’s very difficult to change people’s perception. ”

In the end, could the fate of the vote in the pivotal states be influenced by the debate? “Here in Pennsylvania, I think it can have an effect,” says Nicola Gutgold. Joe Biden is currently ahead in the polls, but not that much. ”

And for voters in Tennessee, where will the debate take place? “No, not at all, that won’t change anything,” said Josh Clinton, before bursting into a big laugh. Donald Trump won Tennessee by 26 points in 2016. “I would be really shaken if Tennessee voted for Biden! But I believe Democrats will close the gap with Republicans. But at what point? 25 points instead of 26? ”

Debate of presidential candidates

Time: 9 p.m. EDT

Duration: 90 minutes, or 15 minutes for each of the 6 themes: fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, American families, race relations, climate change, national security and leadership

Location: Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee

Moderator: Kristen Welker, NBC Network reporter