US election already has more than 41 million early votes; ...

RIO – Two weeks before the presidential election in the United States, almost 40 million Americans have already voted to decide who will occupy the White House for the next four years: whether the current president, Donald Trump, or his opponent, Joe Biden. The number is from the United States Elections Project and is equivalent to 25% of the 156 million voters registered in the last presidential election, in 2016. This type of vote gained more supporters in 2020, mainly due to the pandemic of the new coronavirus . By comparison, at the same time in 2016, the number of those who had already voted was 5.9 million voters – in all, that year, 57.2 million Americans voted before election day.

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In order to meet the high demand of those who chose to avoid possible agglomerations on election day, November 3, states had to adapt. Currently, the 50 US federations and the capital accept early votes, and only seven of them do voters need a justification for voting in this modality – in the other 43, this is not necessary.

In nine states and Washington, all registered voters receive ballot papers at home. It is up to them to decide whether they will be sent by post, deposited in special ballot boxes, before the election, or if they prefer to go to the polling stations on election day. In 34 states, voters who want to vote in advance must first request ballots from local electoral commissions.

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Despite the pandemic driving the modality, more voters had already chosen to vote in advance in previous years. According to the Electoral Assistance Commission (EAC), the number of early voters more than doubled from 2004 to 2016, from 24.9 million to 57.2 million. According to Lucas Leite, professor of International Relations at FAAP and Faculdades Integradas Rio Branco, this is due to the difficulties that Americans face to go to the polls on election day.

– The election takes place on a normal weekday, and workers are not allowed to vote. Voters are also at the mercy of public transport and the climate – explains Leite, who adds: – This is also because of the so-called “gerrymandering” (the redesign of electoral districts to favor a party), which can force voters to vote far away their homes.

Democratic Majority

According to the US Elections Project, of the voters who have already voted and are registered, the majority are Democrats – more than double the Republicans who did. One explanation for this is that supporters of the legend are more adept at security measures against the coronavirus. According to the person in charge of the project, the American political scientist Michael McDonald, the greater adhesion of Democrats to the model breaks the previous pattern, in which Republicans frequently voted by mail.

The move does not necessarily mean Biden’s greater chance of victory, as many Trump supporters are expected to mobilize more on election day. This, according to McDonald, is the bet of the president, who has criticized the early voting modalities as supposedly unreliable. The political scientist, however, points out that the strategy is risky.

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“It is not uncommon for bad weather to occur on election day, and it decreases turnout [às urnas]. There will be fewer polling stations because of Covid-19, so the queues on Election Day can be exceptionally long and terrible for anyone facing them in bad weather. A problem with Covid could unexpectedly close a polling station or polling place, creating last-minute chaos, ”said McDonald in his latest weekly review.

For the counting of early votes, each state follows its own laws, as with everything regarding the organization of elections, explains Akram Elias, president and co-founder of the Capital Communications Group, an international political and consulting firm based in Washington, DC. According to him, due to the number of early votes this year, counting in some counties may begin before November 3 so as not to delay the final result.

– Depending on the county, that is, at the municipal level, counting can start on election day, or it can take days, or they can also start counting earlier, to be able to finish within the deadline they have set, – said Elias, adding that, in all cases, the result is only released after the close of the face-to-face election.

Elias warns that the election result may also be delayed if candidates contest the count, something that can happen in tight contests:

– What can complicate things a bit is that, depending on the count in a given state, if there is a very small difference between the candidates, they can request a recount, and this can delay the final result even more.

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Another challenge faced by voters who choose early voting is the possibility that their votes will not be counted due to errors in filling out ballots or delays in sending them. Not all states disclose the number of votes of the type that were rejected, but McDonald’s also collected data from some federal units that release these numbers, such as California.

According to the state, about 102,000 postal votes were dropped in the California primary election in March this year. The figure represents 1.4% of the nearly 7 million valid ballots. The main reason the votes were rejected was because they were not sent on time. The other reasons are that the vote does not have a signature, or that the signature is not compatible with that of the voter, that the ballot is not in the envelope sent, that there are many ballots in the same envelope, and that the voter has already voted otherwise.