‘Hard Brexit will save the Netherlands 4.8 billion euros in exports’

A hard Brexit, without a trade deal, would cost the Netherlands a lot of money, says Johan Geeroms, Risk Director at Euler Hermes Netherlands. It will save our country 10.5 percent of current exports to the UK, or 4.8 billion euros.

Germany and France will also be hit, but expressed in hard euros, the Netherlands will suffer the most after Germany, says Geeroms.

Logistics

Especially companies active in machine construction, electrical equipment, chemicals and mineral products, textiles and transport equipment will be affected, he thinks.

This also includes the disruption of logistics. “Many entrepreneurs have no idea of ​​the logistical disruption that is occurring. Due to the corona crisis, they now have other concerns on their minds.”

Uneven playing field

In a so-called no-deal Brexit, all exports to the UK will be overhauled, says Euler Hermes. Not only are new agreements required for transport by road, air and sea, but an uneven playing field is also created, says Geeroms.

He fears unfair competition if UK businesses may be subject to less stringent labor, environmental, state aid and tax rules.

Also pain with soft Brexit

In the event of a hard Brexit, Geeroms fears a difficult bridging period in which endless negotiations will be conducted per sector.

Dutch exports will also be affected in the event of a soft Brexit. Then our exports to the UK could be nearly 2.6 billion euros less, predicts Euler Hermes.

Britons in particular suffer

A hard Brexit will also be painful for the British. The economy will then shrink 4.8 percent next year, UK exports will fall 15 percent and inflation will be over 5 percent for at least six months.

Those higher prices that residents and businesses in the UK will face are due to import duties. Other import barriers such as higher administrative and transport costs and a 10 percent depreciation of the pound.

If there is a deal, the UK economy will be able to grow by 2.5 percent in 2021.