The forecast for Friday changed dramatically on Thursday afternoon: 3 to 10 mm of rain became 15 to 25 mm. If it rains over 15mm we will probably be doing at least a soft 6 race.
The rail is in the true position.
Preview of races, tips and best bets for the meeting on Friday evening here …
Inverloch will lead Think We Are Due on the fence. Lord Durante will likely roll forward in the small field.
One more try (4) went well for 3rd place behind Mystic Journey and Perfect Jewel over 1600m, two behind here. She was good at the same start in Caulfield at the last start and should appreciate the ascent to 2040m in third place. It has shape on rain-affected ground.
Inverloch (2) looked like a big campaign when he finished first in Flemington, finishing a whopping 4th place at $ 101. Since then he has been beaten at 1700 m and 2025 m with 15.65 l and 4.7 l. He will be in the lead and a wet track certainly won’t be a punch.
Think we’re due (5) will probably follow Inverloch in the run. He is 1 of 1 on this track and can look back on an excellent record under Melham (5: 3-0-1).
Irish Flame (6) drove well without winning. His 1.5L 5th to The Chosen One this campaign suddenly looks pretty good.
JUDGMENT: Another attempt (4) above. A much improved run from Inverloch (2) certainly wouldn’t shock if you’re in the mood for a little saver at $ 6.50.
West wind will likely come from the inner alley. Nerve Not Verve will be right up there from Barrier Two, too. The others tend to be in the midfield or worse.
Westwind (1) is a tough mare with a great hit rate (5 out of 10). She has just been rolled by the handy three-backed super girl before taking two wins at Cranbourne at that distance. She will race here in the first pair and is absolutely fit after a few wet tracks. This is no more difficult than last time, apart from the extra pounds.
Nerve not verve (7) It looks like a danger to approach this journey as a third party. She copes with the wet and was a dominant winner on this track a few preparations ago.
A Memorable Affair (2) won well over 1600 m with two backs before not running the same trip at the last start. The distance increase looks appropriate, but she’ll likely see a decent start for west winds.
Ocean Miss (8) At the last start of the Pinker Pinker it was big, but couldn’t keep up with the Quinella very late. It should hit its preferred soft ground here.
JUDGMENT: West Wind (1) looks hard to beat. BEST BID
Al Passem looks at the leader of Barrier One, with Sansom likely to settle on his outside. Shipping won’t be too far away.
Sansom (5) jumped out well and usually shoots first (4: 2-1-0). He maps to ride outside of the leader and is capable of both wet and dry. He will find this easier than the last start of the G3 Bletchingly Stakes (1200 m).
Parsifal (4) I couldn’t keep up with Ancestry’s quick start the last time I launched, but I finished well third. He was a brilliant winner in pretty solid time at this distance / distance a year ago and a repetition of that effort would see him cross the finish line. He probably doesn’t want it too wet.
William Thomas (2) has finished 4th in his two previous races, both over this trip. Both times he has a long way back in the race, which is the case here again from barrier eight. He can win if all goes well, but it’s a risky game in the valley.
Simply optimistic (8) won his last pair dominantly. He won a total of 5 out of 8 and deals with the wet.
JUDGMENT: Sansom (5) in an even race at the front.
Parmie could end up up here but could handle a bit of early pressure from iconoclasm. Ken’s Dream and So Si Bon won’t be too far from them in the small field.
Nothing here would shock, but Iconoclasm definitely looks short enough at $ 2.80 as it really takes it bone dry to do his best. So if good (1) has 61 kg, but only 4 kg more than the underweight of the race. The Lindsay Park gelding took 3rd place in the G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600 m) with three backs and cards to get every possible chance.
Ken’s dream (3) hasn’t won in a long time but almost always runs well on this track. The setup doesn’t look good – 1200m to 1500m after a 34-day break – but he loves the wet.
Galaxy Raider (4) could not warm up the first time, but improved the last time to 1400 m. The additional trip here looks ideal again.
Kazio (5) has placed here in his two previous races.
JUDGMENT: So Si Bon (1) for the win. Small saver at Ken’s Dream (3) for $ 11.
Sartorial Splendor should have the speed to run from Our Luca. Our Gladiator and Free Of Debt can push forward from wide gates.
Human Nature (8) deserves another chance. He came back here with two backs further than expected before running home second behind the smart Alfa Oro. His last start in Sydney was disappointing, but he lost all hope by racing back on the field. The indicators go out here and hopefully he can settle down a little closer over the course of barrier four.
Sartorial Splendor (7) is very fast, but can fall off quickly under pressure. If the Sadler-trained gelding finds the front of barrier seven without working too hard, it could prove difficult to catch. He was well beaten in two runs on real wet tracks.
Debt Free (2) has solid claims if he lands outside of Sartorial Splendor and can stay with this runner in the middle of the race. He separated Super Seth and Dalasan as he resumed final preparation.
Tony Nicconi (1) is a two-time winner when fresh and should land on the back of the leader of barrier one. He needs the rain to stay away.
JUDGMENT: Giving human nature (8) another chance.
Wild Cherry Road and Written Beauty should set the pace in this 1000 meter run. Baaqyah and Chosen Blonde should be able to find their way around.
Written Beauty (5) has the speed to negotiate the wide gate. She was dominant and won the 1100m in Canterbury first after a beautiful test. Runner-up last season, she was a 6-liter winner. She was only beaten on a difficult track when she started, but was 3L ahead of 3rd place. The scratching of Valaquenta saw their price drop dramatically.
Hot water (5) and Baaqyah (6) were both dominant maiden winners at the last start and look like the only dangers for the top selection.
JUDGMENT: Written Beauty (3) clearly beat the horse.
Titan Blinders may lead, but Thought Of That and Sunday Pray will keep him honest. Groundswell cards for a nice run right in front of you.
Ground wave (3) took an impressive win in the last race at Cranbourne and may continue here. A really wet track remains a question, but he maps to get every chance. The horse, which took 3rd place at the last start in Kaplumpich, was excellent on this trip in Geelong on Wednesday.
Titan Blinders (5) is very real, placing in 16 of his 22 starts. He’s 2 out of 2 over that distance and should land on the first pair of barrier three without doing too much work.
Night man (9) can win when the track is really wet. He won 3.25L on a Heavy 9 Two-Back before finishing 2nd at Groundswell at the last start.
Love not Beehunter (7) in The Valley, and he’s going to need good luck inside, but this is a fair drop after chasing Windstorm and Phaistos home on the last launch.
JUDGMENT: Groundswell (3) for the win.
Pippie leads from barrier one. Hey Doc, Splintex and Bella Vella will be vying for place outside the leader. Diamond Effort and Dirty Work should land right in front of midfield, with Trekking likely a time or two behind.
Trekking (1) brings the strongest form into this race and finished fourth in Everest (1200 m) behind Classique Legend last Saturday. They ran a brilliant time there and this Godolphin gelding hit home like Santa Ana Lane, Nature Strip and Libertini. Given that Godolphin paid a late entry fee for this race, you’d think he made it through Everest in excellent order. He finished second with Pippie in the G1 Moir Stakes (1000 m) here with two backs.
Diamantanstrengung (10) offers 11 top 2 placements from just 16 starts. She crossed the line with Dirty Work in the last start of the G2 Schillaci (1100 m) after she had found 1000 m here in the G1 Moir Stakes. The McDonald mare masters all surfaces and flies absolutely for Melham (5: 4-0-0).
Pippie (8) led all the way to the last start of the G1 Moir (1000 m) and gave nothing else a chance. You’d have to get a pretty soft lead here to make it through the 1200m, but helping fast horses in The Valley is certainly not the worst punting strategy. A really wet track would test.
Hey Doc (2) won this race in 2017 and was 2nd in the G2 Australia Operations on this route earlier this year. He fought pretty well second at Caulfield and should be ready to finish third after a decent break.
Dirty Work (6) is in the air and is only 1.4 liters behind Classique Legend Two-Back. The main reason for him is the fact that he had problems here in two previous races. He’s clearly gone to another level since those Valley Runs were running. Barrier three and pike are obvious ticks.
JUDGMENT: Trekking (1) for victory.
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