Writing this week on any topic other than the US elections seems to be an escape from the main topic that many around the world await, amid a popular exaggeration in the Arab world about the size of the impact of this change on the details of the region, which, as the American proverb says, “The elephant in the room.”And here we are between two approaches to understanding American foreign policy. There is an understanding that exaggerates the changes in executive positions as formalities, and that America has established plans that have followed it since Henry Kissinger worked on its engineering in the seventies of the last century.
This understanding neglects in the first place that the American system is a presidential system and not a parliamentary system, which gives the president great powers, and a complete ability to divert American policy towards an external file to a large extent, but even this analysis is taken in an exaggerated way, so Trump would not have continued in the Oval Office The next day, he will go to war with Iran, and Biden will not jump to the nuclear deal the day after entering the White House.
And I see that America as a superpower and its influence, is in the end evaluating the existing reality first and not necessarily making it. Today the American president comes to a region whose countries are heading to peace with Israel, and Bahrain and the UAE share a vision about Iran as the biggest danger in the region, and on The need to take all steps that would prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Wherever the compass of the US elections turns, two main issues in the nuclear file cannot be overlooked; The first is that the recent US sanctions and the Iranian economic situation is an important negotiating card for Washington. The other factor is the Iranian return to uranium enrichment, which prompts you to think carefully about the feasibility of the nuclear agreement from verifying the peacefulness of the Iranian program.
On the part of Iran, it considers that President Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement is a slap it does not wish to repeat, and therefore aspires to a treaty rather than an agreement, in a way that preserves its rights regardless of the change of course of the river in Washington after four years.
Sometimes, far from what is happening in Washington, we have complex problems in the region that are difficult to solve with a magic wand. If we take the Syrian example, Russia preempted the 2016 elections by destroying Aleppo, and Erdogan withdrew his followers by buses to northern Syria. On the other hand, the refusal of Assad’s survival is considered The common denominators between the Republican and Democratic parties, and this is what made the passage of the Caesar Act smooth, yet what has changed in Syria in four years, in the interest of any party .. Nothing is mentioned.
And in Lebanon today, which disrupts Hezbollah and the rest of the ruling triumvirate, forming the government until the conclusion of the American elections, while the inauguration of General Aoun was hastened in 2016, it seems that there is an Arab exaggeration in the level of reliance on the influence, not to mention Washington’s interest in the region’s files, even if the impact on Lebanon resulted from dealing The US policy towards Iran, because the Lebanese surrendered to Hezbollah’s rule.
The Americans are using a new language in these elections, as a result of a state of great polarization, stemming from President Trump’s strategy, which created loyal extremists loyal and opponents sincere hostility, and this state of polarization led to an increase in the percentage of voters, and the entry of groups, including rural residents who were not usually tired of the elections. Tomorrow, the world will know whether the Republican Party will leave the “elephant” room or will it stay in it.
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