The future of oil in Saudi Arabia … To where?

Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced in its annual report its expectations for the future of global demand for oil in the short and long terms, and in particular its expectation that global oil demand will reach its peak at the end of the next decade, the media and social media have been filled with reactions varying between objective and subjective. The optimist and the pessimist. In 2019, the global demand for oil compared to other energy sources was more than 31 percent, and according to the OPEC report, oil will be on the top of global energy sources until 2045 by 27 percent, followed by gas by 25 percent, and then coal. By 20 percent. When anticipating the future of oil in the near term, the Corona Covid-19 pandemic and its severe negative impact on the global economy, and the oil markets on which what is happening on all other economic activities, cannot be ignored. Economic paralysis in light of the Corona pandemic has led to a decline in energy demand in the current year 2020, as oil demand decreased by nine million barrels per day compared to 2019, but OPEC expects global demand to reach about 103.7 million barrels per day in 2025, In the medium and long terms, you expect to continue growth at a rate of 0.9 percent annually until 2045. I mentioned previously in a series of articles entitled “Foresight is an industry and not an intellectual luxury” that the outputs of outlook studies are not assumptions of a static nature. Rather, the specialized centers must be characterized by this type of studies. With the dynamics and follow-up of the changes that occur to the inputs of the topics under study periodically, the inputs “expectations” on which these studies are based may change partially or completely, which will necessarily be reflected in their outputs and accuracy. The media and public interaction with the OPEC report on the peak of oil demand came as uneven between a fair and professional reader of the event, and a troll who found his way to spread his poisons and pass misleading messages. I was drawn to the attempt by some of the parties that are indignant against Saudi Arabia and those around it to exploit this issue by trying to pass negative messages and trying to spread a kind of panic about the future of oil in Saudi Arabia and the future of its economy without objectivity or professionalism, and this is not surprising to them. They overlooked the fact that oil is not a monopoly on energy, and that it has many uses and applications that cannot be mentioned in this article. Nevertheless, oil will remain on the throne of the global energy mix until 2045 if the forward-looking expectations about peak oil demand are correct. They neglected to explain the difference between the decline in growth in demand and the decrease in demand, and as if oil revenues will reach zero in that year, they tried to portray this news as surprising and disastrous, as if they did not know that decision-makers in Saudi Arabia started a long time ago a strategy of integration between the upstream and downstream industry and domestic investment And overseas in the downstream and downstream industries. As if they did not know that liberation from oil and diversification of income sources is one of the pillars of our blessed vision, “Vision 2030”. What I think is that the Ministry of Energy, in cooperation with the relevant authorities and under the guidance of the wise leadership, has been working for a long time in every direction with effectiveness, wisdom and harmony to achieve the goals of the “vision”, as if its mouthpiece says: Rain as you wish, then your abscess will come to us.

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