The Group of Twenty, led by Saudi Arabia … the courage...

When talking about the Corona epidemic and the serious negative repercussions that have afflicted the global economic system as a result of the outbreak of the virus, comments, thinking and discussions focus mostly on the losses suffered by the global economy, especially the main ones in the world.
This thinking may have a lot of logic and rationality, as the major economies lead the global economy, and their injury and losses will reflect on everyone, no doubt about that.
But this logic should not prevent research into the impact of the epidemic on the world’s poorest economies, as the impact of the pandemic in it appears to multiply for many reasons, and in a way that may result in a total economic collapse.
These economies have very difficult living conditions, insufficient health care capacity at best, and their economies are difficult for them to live or survive in normal conditions without the support and support of the richest countries, and with this support diminishing and even the possibility of its absence due to the economic decline in developed countries, the ability The poorest economies on our planet to survive have come into question.
Regardless of whether a second wave of the epidemic will strike the international community or not, the economic damage has occurred, as some studies indicate that the economy of the group of the most advanced countries in the world will not return to the level it was in the last quarter of 2019 – i.e. Before the virus spread globally and turned into a pandemic – two years from now.
Initial estimates also indicate that the global aid program will lose about $ 12 billion, which is the equivalent of a country like France to completely stop its foreign aid program, and in the event of a second wave of the epidemic, it will add another $ 15 billion to the global aid program’s losses, which means a retreat. The total of global aid programs is about 27 billion dollars, equivalent to the suspension of the entire European Union aid program.
The essence of the problem for the poorest countries is that most of their citizens depend on the local economy to survive, and if they do not work, they will not get an income, and with the absence of real social security networks and the inability of governments to provide them effectively and seriously, the options available to citizens They are very small, which reinforces the social behavior that is unresponsive to the official directives necessary to confront the epidemic and limit its spread, which deepens the problem of these countries and increases their tragedy.
Amid this dire situation for poor economies as a result of the Corona epidemic, the role played by the G20 in its current session under the presidency of Saudi Arabia, from the experts’ point of view, was considered a model for international organizations and institutions to follow in how to extend a real hand of aid to save poor economies.
“The role played by the G20 represented a milestone in how to prevent further deterioration of economic conditions in poor countries, or at least provide them with some economic energy to enable them to face the troubled situations,” said economist Dr. John Philip.
He adds, “For example, the countries that provide the most money to Africa are the United States of America, Saudi Arabia, France, and the United Kingdom, and currently in sub-Saharan Africa, one in five people suffers from undernourishment due to the epidemic, and food imports are likely to decrease by some The quarter this year: 60 percent of Senegalese have lost their income, and more than a third of them eat less food, and there are 30 poorer countries that spend more on public debt than they spend on public health services. Gambia, for example, spends nine times its health budget on debt.
Dr. John Philip mentions that the G20 has concluded an agreement to reduce the debt burden, and although the agreement covers bilateral debt, that is, loans from other governments, it ultimately covers half of the total debt service of these countries.
Although experts praised the model established by the G20 under the leadership of Saudi Arabia in addressing as quickly as possible the problems that afflicted the poorest countries as a result of the Corona pandemic, these moves alone will not be sufficient to bring these countries out of their crisis, stressing the need for concerted efforts of the international community and its financial institutions. In a more robust way to support those least developed countries and prevent them from experiencing further economic collapse.
Stephen Adam, a researcher at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, says to “The Economist”, “1.1 billion people live in the least developed countries in the world. With an average real GDP per capita of $ 922, which is equivalent to 9 percent of the global average, and that category of countries is the most Affected by the economic repercussions of the Corona epidemic, and a second wave of the virus means a real disaster for them in every sense of the word. “
He added, “The most prominent damage inflicted on these poor economies is the significant decline that is likely to be a complete cessation of foreign investment, the shrinking of the mainly fragile capacity for export, and the rise in unemployment rates, with the worsening of the debt crisis.”
Currently, according to United Nations estimates, 18 out of 47 of the poorest countries identified by the world body are in debt distress or highly vulnerable to debt distress, and with the deterioration in the facilitation of official development assistance, the United Nations continues to express its concerns about the overall capacity of the lowest Developed countries, to endure a second wave of infections, amid expectations of insufficient debt sustainability.
However, the deterioration of conditions in the poorest economies does not stop at the limits of the debt default crisis, but rather lies in the increase in their poverty.
For her part, Dr. Josephine Spark, professor of international economics at the University of Glasgow, assured to “The Economist” that the number of people who suffer from extreme poverty, that is, those people who earn less than 1.90 dollars a day, will increase from 70 to 100 million people this year due to the Corona virus, By using broader criteria, including those without basic shelter or clean water and children suffering from hunger, the ranks of the poor would swell to between 240 and 290 million.
This scene, which predicts an increase in poverty in poor countries, is prompting a number of experts to urge the wealthier countries to speed up taking concrete practical steps to save what can be saved in fragile economies before it is too late.
Dr. S. R. Allen, a former consultant at the United Nations, looks like an international rescue project for the world’s poorest economies. He told Al-Eqtisadiah that “the long-term total cost of protecting the poorest 32 countries is estimated at $ 90 billion, less than 1 percent of the cost of various stimulus packages in highly developed capitalist economies.”
Dr. Allen believes that if the poorest countries in the world are not protected, conditions in them will deteriorate further if the second wave of the virus swept through developed countries, specifically Europe, as a result of a decrease in remittances from migrants.
International data show that remittances from migrants are worth five times the value of international aid, but have fallen 23 percent during the pandemic. This decrease in current transfers is equal to roughly 100 percent of foreign aid.