Middle East on edge as fears mount that Iran war could restart after US midterms

Hind Al Soulia - Riyadh - DUBAI — US President Donald Trump reportedly said he wants to give diplomacy with Iran more time before considering renewed military strikes after Tuesday’s US midterm elections.

Trump reportedly told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call that he wanted to give diplomacy with Tehran more time before considering further strikes, Axios reported, quoting sources.

CBS News reported that Trump said he believed the US would soon end the war with Iran, "one way or the other". The US President was speaking to Right Side Broadcasting Network before a campaign rally in Iowa on Sunday, according to the report.

On Saturday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no decision had been made on renewed strikes and that Trump preferred a diplomatic resolution.

On Sunday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report that a ship had been struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, after an attack on a liquefied natural gas tanker on Friday. The UKMTO also reported a vessel was struck east of Ras Al Khafji, along the Gulf coast.

An Iranian delegation was in Qatar for discussions with mediators on Saturday, according to a Bloomberg report.

With little transparency from Washington and warmongering from Tehran, people across the Middle East have been left anxious and confused, according to CNN.

Trump has offered little clarity on his endgame, oscillating between threats of further strikes and openness to possible diplomacy.

Iran has tried to project its own deterrence, claiming it now possesses weaponry capable of striking more targets and inflicting even greater damage than before.

“The mood has definitely shifted,” a 36-year-old American national living in Saudi Arabia told CNN. She plans to leave before Tuesday’s midterms, after which Trump has hinted renewed fighting is possible.

“People are more cautious in general, and it feels like a waiting game to see what happens,” she added.

At homes and workplaces across Gulf Arab countries, questions are swirling. Residents are searching for clues that could help them make plans in case of school closures or travel disruption.

The war, which began in February, entered its eighth month this week with both sides still locked in a stubborn stalemate, neither making progress diplomatically nor capable of breaking the military impasse.

Trump wrote on social media earlier this month that Washington “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections.” That the US president neither ruled out nor confirmed strikes would resume afterward is part of the reason for the ongoing nerves.

Asked Sunday about his conversation with Netanyahu on Saturday, Trump provided no details, saying only that he “had a very good talk” with the prime minister.

“The US has been actively feeding into this regionwide sense of anxiety as it keeps signaling that another round of escalation might be imminent,” Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN. “But it’s becoming difficult to distinguish pressure tactics from genuine signals.”

Adding to a sense that escalation could be imminent, Netanyahu, who partnered with the US in attacking Iran and has been pushing for new strikes, will remain in office despite losing his majority in the recent elections. Negotiations to form a new government in Israel look set to begin in earnest next week, but election results suggest it will be difficult for opposition parties to oust Netanyahu quickly, if at all.

In the absence of clarity, residents in the region often rely on hearsay or search social media for reports on troop movements to determine whether a US strike is imminent.

Over the past month, Iranian military commanders have also intensified a series of public messages claiming that Iran has built up large stockpiles of new weapons, a tactic designed to induce fear among Washington’s allies in the region.

A senior security official in Tehran told CNN that Iran will try to target infrastructure beyond oil facilities in the region, including AI, and warned that if the conflict resumes, it will be a long “war of surprises.”

On Saturday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered a response “without geographical limitations” to any new threat, an apparent effort to present a leader still yet to be seen in public as playing an active role in military preparations.

Foreign workers drawn to Gulf Arab states by economic opportunities and a tax-free lifestyle have for decades lived in relative stability in a region mired in conflict. That sense of security was shattered this year after the US and Israel launched the war, prompting Tehran to fire unprecedented barrages of ballistic missiles and drones onto Arab cities, disrupting schools, travel and business and causing multiple casualties.

“I’m actively trying not to think about that happening again because I really don’t want another winter with strikes,” Michelle, a 36-year-old American resident in Abu Dhabi, told CNN. “I’ve always felt safe here…but I’m more concerned that our lives will have to change again.”

This month, people were surprised to find out that families of US diplomats have begun discreetly leaving, with the sudden departures becoming known only after their children started saying goodbye to classmates at school. Many of those leaving had only recently returned to their posts after being ordered out at the height of the Iran war in March.

Fueling anxiety among residents are reports of thousands of US troops being dispatched to the region, as reported by the Associated Press.

Elsewhere in the region, other international gatherings remain on track, though the risk remains that they could be disrupted if the US launches strikes in the coming week.

In Abu Dhabi, where no attacks have been recorded since May, two US oil firms canceled plans for their executives to attend one of the region’s biggest oil conferences, citing security concerns, Reuters reported. The event will proceed as scheduled next week with “strong” US participation and more than 120 American exhibiting companies, the organizer, DMG, told Reuters.

The conference is expected to host nearly 240,000 people, according to the organizers.

In Bahrain, one of the worst-hit countries by Iran this year, people said they still felt the psychological impact of the war.

“There is still that traumatic effect,” 21-year-old Fawaz told CNN. “When you hear the bombings, it’s kind of like you feel it in your hearts and it’s hard to sleep at night, especially when there are bombings outside.”

“A lot of people have become used to it by now but it’s still very scary,” he added.

Despite growing anxiety over the possible resumption of war, there has been a flurry of quiet diplomacy over the past week.

US Vice President JD Vance sent Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei a letter, which the Islamic Republic is reviewing, according to Iranian media. Trump has claimed that the letter was related to an Iranian request for medical supplies, but it has raised hopes a diplomatic breakthrough could still be possible.

Iranian officials are in Qatar for talks, a Qatari official said. Qatar has played a prominent role mediating, but the official added there was no US delegation present Saturday.

In stark contrast to Trump’s warnings, the US ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said he thinks there could be “dramatic steps” in the next two weeks.

“We’re close. I think we’re very close to a place where we can finally say: Let’s just have a time out,” he said, adding that it is, however, a “matter of trust and who goes first.”

On Saturday, Rubio would not say clearly if progress had been made in the talks over the past 48 hours, but claimed that “if there is a diplomatic solution, we would be open to it.”

Asked if the Trump administration has any time frame for progress in the talks before it would resume military action, Rubio said, “I don’t know if there’s a time frame,” noting that “it’s up to the president to make decisions with regard to those sorts of things.”

“There are multiple talks. Talks have actually never stopped. There’s been active conversations going, both in some cases directly, but often through intermediaries,” he said at a press conference in Atlanta.

“The president’s preference in any challenge around the world is to try to solve it diplomatically and peacefully, if possible,” Rubio said. “He recognizes there are some issues in the world that cannot be solved peacefully, unfortunately, sadly, but we would prefer to solve it in that manner.”

Rubio said that any diplomatic solution “can’t be one that endangers our national security or one that doesn’t meet our core concerns,” particularly around Iran’s nuclear program.

Iranian officials have said they’re open for diplomacy with the US, but they do not have trust that talks will stop military strikes, citing several past occasions when the Islamic Republic was struck during negotiations.

“Iran’s conditions have been repeatedly and clearly stated to the mediators,” said Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliamentary speaker who is leading negotiations with the US. “The carrot-and-stick approach has no effect on Iran. Progress can only be achieved once Iran’s seven conditions have been agreed upon.”