Putin faces growing pressure at home as Ukraine war drags into fifth year

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Russian President Vladimir Putin's popularity has taken a hit: his approval rating last month dipped to its lowest since 2022, according to independent polling. — AFP pic

WARSAW, May 22 — More than four years into his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is facing mounting challenges.

Internet outages designed to prevent Ukrainian drone attacks have angered many Russians, the economy is in contraction and the Russian army has been losing ground in Ukraine for the first time since 2023.

The 73-year-old’s popularity has taken a hit: his approval rating last month dipped to its lowest since 2022, according to independent polling.

But analysts say the challenges are not yet big enough to topple the former KGB agent, who has spent more than a quarter of a century consolidating his power and eliminating the opposition.

“Approval ratings are falling, frustration is mounting and anxiety is growing. The four-year psychological milestone has passed, and some people have realised that things aren’t quite going to plan,” political scientist Konstantin Kalachev told AFP.

“But nothing critical is happening,” he said.

Despite widespread discontent over the internet outages, frustration has not yet translated into major protests, with authorities cracking down on any signs of dissent and Russians embracing virtual private networks (VPNs) to skirt the restrictions.

Many Russians are adapting to the challenges, having “learnt to live in the short-term” as the war with Ukraine drags on for four years and counting, said Kalachev.

“The situation in the country can be summed up like this: life is hard, but bearable.”

Russia cornered but ‘formidable’ 

Russia’s progress in Ukraine has slowed to a crawl in recent months.

It has failed to achieve its objective of taking over Ukraine’s Donbas region, despite incurring hundreds of thousands of military casualties and waging battles that have wrought destruction across its neighbour.

In April, for the first time since 2023, the Russian army lost more territory in Ukraine than it gained, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War.

Moscow’s annual Victory Day parade on May 9 was vastly scaled back compared to previous years, with no military hardware on display for the first time in nearly two decades due to fears of a Ukrainian drone attack.

“The dismal performance of the May 9th ceremony testifies to the Kremlin’s difficulties, which may recall those of the final years of the USSR,” Michel Duclos, a resident expert at the Paris-based Institut Montaigne think-tank, wrote in a paper earlier this month.

“Its economy, initially stimulated by military spending, is now stagnating, even falling into recession, like that of the USSR in the past,” he added.

But the comparison should not be exaggerated, he said.

Despite Russia’s mounting losses and problems on the battlefield, Moscow remains a force to be reckoned with.

“Russia, though cornered, remains a formidable force on the three battlefields of the front lines, energy infrastructure, and diplomatic negotiations,” the paper said.

‘Let’s not dramatise’ 

A report from Latvia’s foreign intelligence service shared with AFP suggested there was discontent among Russia’s business elite over the authorities’ restrictions on the internet.

It also said state agencies had bolstered security around Putin over unspecified threats to challenge him.

Russia’s economy posted its first quarterly contraction in three years earlier this month. Tax hikes to cover massive spending on the Ukraine war have also frustrated many, the agency said.

“Our information indicates that members of the elite discuss the potential figures to eventually replace the current ageing leaders with younger ones who they find fit to represent their interests,” the report said.

Reports in Western media have long speculated that a challenger could emerge within Putin’s inner circle.

But no one has yet appeared.

Following Russian paramilitary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s open rebellion against the Kremlin in 2023, Putin has sought to quash any autonomy in the military and government.

“A crisis requires two factors: a trigger and a leader,” said Kalachev.

There has not yet been a trigger—despite widespread frustration.

“And as for a leader... we do not have the kind of system where unauthorised leaders can emerge,” he said.

“Let’s not dramatise things.” — AFP