Thailand’s Bhumjaithai triumph explained — how Anutin outmanoeuvred rivals and what comes next

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Thailand’s ruling Bhumjaithai Party scored a decisive victory at last weekend’s general elections, routing progressive and populist parties to put leader Anutin Charnvirakul in the running to become the ‌first premier voted back to office in 20 years. — Reuters pic

BANGKOK, Feb 9 — Thailand’s ruling Bhumjaithai Party scored a decisive victory at last weekend’s general elections, routing progressive and populist parties to put leader Anutin Charnvirakul in the running to become the ‌first premier voted back to office in 20 years.

How did the election play out?

Bhumjaithai grabbed and retained a sizeable lead in early vote counting, despite opinion polls that favoured the liberal People’s Party, whose leaders, ‍along with those of the Pheu Thai party, had conceded early.

It expanded in the south and grabbed seats ‌in the vote-rich northeast held for nearly two decades by the billionaire Shinawatra family’s once dominant Pheu Thai.

Bhumjaithai had about 192 of 500 parliamentary seats from nearly 95 per cent of polling stations, Reuters calculations based on election commission data show, well over its tallies of 51 and 71 in 2019 and ‍2023 elections respectively.

Despite a clean sweep of the capital Bangkok, People’s Party was a distant second with 117 seats, and Pheu Thai at 74, in its worst electoral performance.

How easily can Anutin form a coalition?

Although Bhumjaithai lacks an outright majority, its 192 seats give Anutin plenty of bargaining power. Clearing away one obstacle, the People’s Party said on Sunday it would not form a competing alliance.

Apart from the big three parties, about a dozen smaller ones are set to win 117 seats, from Kla Tham, with 57, to Palang Pracharat, with 5. As part of Anutin’s minority government, those two alone would yield him a slender majority.

A Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai alliance is possible, even though Anutin manoeuvred against it after abandoning the coalition of the former ruling party last year, to become premier ‍following a court’s sacking of predecessor ‍Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

With his party on the rise and his credentials as an astute but wily dealmaker wielding clout among conservatives and royalists, Anutin is set to draw defectors and many smaller parties.

Is political stability likely under Anutin?

The size of Bhumjaithai’s win consolidates power to enable better governance if Anutin can manage Thailand’s stuttering economy and balance the interests of big business groups and powerful institutions.

Anutin would probably be backed by Thailand’s influential establishment and military, the key protagonists in a lengthy power struggle that thwarted two progressive forerunners of the People’s Party’s and toppled in coups and court rulings six populist prime minister from, or backed by, the Shinawatras.

How did Anutin win?

Anutin’s gamble on dissolving parliament amid a fierce conflict with Cambodia seems to have paid off as he ‌rode a wave of months-long nationalism and campaigned heavily on defending national sovereignty while portraying rivals as unpatriotic.

Though premier for fewer than 100 days, his recruitment of technocrats and poaching of respected politicians from other parties let him ‍project his party as a capable steward of the economy, against an untested People’s Party and a Pheu Thai that had failed ‌to deliver.

When can ‍a government be formed?

Parliament must gather to elect a speaker and choose the new prime minister 15 days after the result is certified by ‍the election commission, which it has 60 days to do.

Any party with more than 25 seats can nominate a prime ministerial candidate for ‍the vote in parliament, but such a contestant would have to gain the support ⁠of more than half of the 500 lawmakers ‍before forming a cabinet.

If the vote is unsuccessful, the house must convene again and repeat the procedure until a premier is chosen. — Reuters