What will Seoul's new leader mean for North Korea ties?

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Lee Jae-myung (C), the presidential candidate for South Korea's Democratic Party, takes a question from the press after casting his early vote for the upcoming presidential election at a nearby polling station in Seoul on May 29. — AFP pic

SEOUL, May 31 — On the campaign trail in South Korea ahead of the June 3 vote, leading candidates in the presidential race have barely mentioned the nuclear-armed North—but a new leader in Seoul could shake-up years of Pyongyang policy.

Under the hawkish Yoon Suk Yeol—whose ouster over his disastrous declaration of martial law triggered the snap presidential poll—Seoul took a hard line towards North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

AFP takes a look at what could happen next:

What’s the situation?

Relations between the two Koreas are at one of their lowest points in years, thanks in part to Yoon’s short-lived presidency, who said on the campaign trail he’d teach “rude” Kim Jong Un a lesson.

Yoon’s former People Power Party has always traditionally taken a harder line on the North than the country’s left-wing Democratic Party, and during his time in office, Yoon threatened preemptive strikes and bolstered joint drills with ally the US.

The North has also toughened its stance: blowing up inter-Korean roads and railways, declaring the South an “enemy state” and scrapping military deals aimed at avoiding accidental escalations.

If front-runner, the DP’s Lee Jae-myung, wins the election on Tuesday, things could change: he has already vowed to restart efforts to engage Kim.

Lee’s North Korea policy will represent a “complete turnaround” from Yoon’s, Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, told AFP.

His approach follows that of his party, which traditionally champions dialogue with Pyongyang, he said.

There could be “potential for improvement in ties with Pyongyang” if Lee wins, he added.

Will ties improve?

The last polls before the pre-election blackout period showed Lee in the lead. But it is still possible that the PPP’s candidate Kim Moon-soo could sneak into the lead—especially if another right-wing candidate, currently in third place, were to endorse him.

In the case, it is likely Kim would maintain Yoon’s hardline policy toward Pyongyang. He has called for more US nuclear assets to be deployed to the peninsula.

Kim’s policy platform is notably light on details on what he plans to do regarding Pyongyang—but it’s basically just “an extension of Yoon’s policy in substance,” professor Lim said.

“In a way, Kim’s rhetoric suggests he may take an even more hawkish stance on the North than Yoon, raising the risk of heightened military tensions.”

What about Trump?

Trump has talked up his “great relationship” with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and hinted that he might seek to rekindle his relationship with the third-generation ruler in Pyongyang.

During Trump’s first term, the two met multiple times for talks on possible denuclearisation, which ultimately collapsed without a deal.

“Trump could shift his focus to North Korea once the situation in Ukraine is resolved through a truce with Russia,” said Hong Min, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

“It is possible that he will be eager to engage with the North in pursuit of diplomatic achievements,” he said.

But after the collapse of talks, which Kim found “humiliating, he may not be as receptive to a potential summit proposal from Trump as he once was.”

And Ukraine?

After Russia invaded Ukraine, Pyongyang began supplying Moscow with weapons and soldiers to help it fight Kyiv.

Ex-president Yoon slammed the growing ties between the North and Russia—and even hinting that Seoul, a major arms exporter, could consider providing weapons direct to Ukraine, currently barred by longstanding domestic policy.

At the time, Lee criticised Yoon for this, warning that such a move would be “a death sentence” for South Korean companies in Russia.

He has also blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the war, saying he had “provoked Russia with a promise to join NATO.” He later apologised for the remark.

He now says he will pursue “pragmatic diplomacy” in terms of Seoul’s ties with Russia.

His foreign policy advisor said this could include “efforts to seek dialogue and improve ties with Russia,” Choi Gi-il told AFP.

Kim Moon-soo has not commented on the conflict.

What will North Korea do?

Pyongyang has not commented on the South’s election and is not expected to do so on its outcome, said Lim of Kyungnam University.

“But if Lee wins, the North will closely monitor how he implements his North Korea policy—particularly any changes to joint military drills with the US,” he said.

If Kim Moon-soo wins, having pledged to maintain a hardline stance and increase the deployment of US nuclear assets around the peninsula, Pyongyang could attempt to undermine his administration, Lim added.

“North Korea could resort to a highly aggressive military provocation, escalating tensions to a new level.” — AFP