Just a disaster waiting to happen? Plummeting vaccination rates spark fears of a US public health crisis

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Plummeting immunisation rates, outbreaks of once-vanquished childhood diseases, and the appointment of a vocal vaccine sceptic as health secretary have US experts sounding the alarm about a looming public health crisis. — Reuters pic

WASHINGTON, Feb 26 — Plummeting immunisation rates, outbreaks of once-vanquished childhood diseases, and the appointment of a vocal vaccine sceptic as health secretary have US experts sounding the alarm about a looming public health crisis.

Since the start of the year, nearly 100 cases of measles have been reported in Texas and neighbouring New Mexico, raising fears that the highly contagious and potentially serious illness is making a comeback.

“The measles is the canary in the coal mine,” warned leading paediatrician and immunologist Paul Offit, highlighting the decline in vaccination rates since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Amid growing distrust of health authorities and pharmaceutical companies, more parents are opting not to vaccinate their children.

The proportion of preschool-aged children vaccinated against measles — which is mandatory — has dropped nationally from 95 per cent in 2019 to less than 93 per cent in 2023. Some regions show even steeper declines, such as Idaho, where rates have fallen below 80 per cent.

Experts warn that this trend could worsen under the leadership of newly appointed Health Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., who has repeatedly questioned vaccine safety and promoted misinformation.

“It is a disaster waiting to happen, and it will happen,” Offit told AFP.

Religious exemptions

In Louisiana, whooping cough has resulted in the deaths of two children, according to local media. As with measles, experts attribute the resurgence to vaccine exemptions.

“This is already happening. Our immunisation rates are already low enough that vulnerable children are getting these diseases,” said Jennifer Herricks, a scientist and board member of the nonprofit Louisiana Families for Vaccines, in an interview with AFP.

Across much of the country, parents can opt out of mandatory vaccinations for reasons beyond medical contraindications.

Many states allow exemptions on religious grounds, while others permit “philosophical” objections — or both.

“In Texas, you can just, pretty much say, I object,” explained Terri Burke of the Texas-based Immunization Partnership.

The recent measles cases have been reported in a Texas county with a large Mennonite population — a conservative Christian sect.

The situation is reminiscent of the 2019 measles outbreak, which saw more than 1,200 cases, primarily among unvaccinated Orthodox Jewish communities in New York and New Jersey.

While the reasons behind these exemptions vary — ranging from religious beliefs and fear of side effects to distrust in health authorities or difficulties accessing health care — there is an undeniable trend linked to a “pandemic backlash”, said Richard Hughes, a health policy expert at George Washington University.

Legislative offensives

Mixed messaging on masking, frustration over lockdowns and Covid vaccine mandates — some of which remained in place long after it was clear the shots didn’t fully prevent transmission — have eroded public trust, he said.

“We might have done better by just continuing to encourage people to be vaccinated than requiring it,” Hughes added.

But any missteps were amplified by an overwhelming spread of misinformation, which thrived in the era of social media and podcasts.

These factors have turned vaccinations into a flashpoint in America’s culture wars. Across the country, lawmakers are introducing bills aimed at either enshrining vaccine mandates at the local level, banning certain types of vaccines, or expanding exemptions.

The number of such bills has more than doubled compared to pre-Covid levels, said Herricks, who tracks the issue nationally.

Notable shifts include Montana’s decision to halt vaccination statistics and Louisiana’s cessation of vaccine promotion — both signs of the growing marginalisation of a practice that was once a cornerstone of public health policy.

According to Offit, Americans may soon face a harsh reality check.

Before the measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, the disease sickened an estimated three to four million Americans annually and killed hundreds.

It was declared eliminated in the United States by 2000, thanks to widespread immunisation.

“People don’t realise how sick and dead that virus can make you,” he said. — AFP