Could Ishiba be Japan’s shortest-serving PM? LDP fails to secure absolute majority in snap elections

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was on thin ice today after his ruling coalition was projected to have lost its parliamentary majority in disastrous snap elections. — AFP pic

TOKYO, Oct 28 — Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was on thin ice today after his ruling coalition was projected to have lost its parliamentary majority in disastrous snap elections.

Ishiba, 67, called Sunday’s vote days after taking office on October 1, but voters angry at a slush fund scandal punished his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

“We are receiving severe judgement,” Ishiba, who the LDP chose as leader last month precisely because he was seen as popular among voters, told national broadcaster NHK after polls closed on Sunday.

The Japanese people “expressed their strong desire for the LDP to do some reflection and become a party that will act in line with the people’s will”, he said.

National broadcaster NHK and other media outlets reported that the LDP — which has governed almost non-stop since 1955 — had fallen short of an absolute majority on its own for the first time since 2009.

Even worse, the projections suggest that the previous coalition of the LDP and the smaller Komeito party had missed Ishiba’s election goal of winning 233 seats in the 456-member lower house.

The LDP won 191 seats and Komeito 24, according to NHK tallies as of Monday morning.

Ahead of the election, local media had speculated that if this happened, Ishiba could potentially quit to take responsibility, becoming Japan’s shortest-serving prime minister in the post-war period.

If he stays, the outcome means Ishiba will have to head a minority government or seek new coalition partners.

Footage from the LDP headquarters showed gloomy faces as projections based on exit polls indicated Ishiba’s justice and agriculture ministers were likely to lose their seats.

“If we are unable to obtain a majority as a result of severe public judgement, we will ask as many people as possible to cooperate with us,” the LDP’s election chief Shinjiro Koizumi told reporters.

Worst in 15 years

In Japan’s last general election in 2021, the LDP won a majority in its own right, with 259 seats in parliament’s powerful lower house. Komeito had 32.

If confirmed by official results, the LDP losing its majority will be the worst result since it lost power 15 years ago before being brought back in a 2012 landslide by late former premier Shinzo Abe.

Opinion polls before the election had suggested that in many districts LDP candidates were neck-and-neck with those from the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the second-biggest in parliament, led by popular former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda.

The CDP appeared to have made considerable gains, with NHK indicating it had won 148 seats as of early Monday — up from 96.

Ishiba had promised to not actively support LDP politicians caught up in the funding scandal that saw party members pocket money from fund-raising events and helped sink his predecessor Fumio Kishida.

But the opposition jumped on media reports that the party has provided 20 million yen (RM568,000) each to district offices headed by these figures, who were still standing in the election.

“Voters chose which party would be the best fit to push for political reforms,” Noda said late Sunday, adding that the “LDP-Komeito administration cannot continue”.

The number of women lawmakers meanwhile reached a record high at 73, according to NHK.

Ishiba has pledged to revitalise depressed rural regions and to address the “quiet emergency” of Japan’s declining population through family-friendly measures such as flexible working hours.

But he rowed back his position on issues including allowing married couples to take separate surnames. He also named only two women as ministers in his cabinet.

He has backed the creation of a regional military alliance along the lines of Nato to counter China, although he has cautioned it would “not happen overnight”.

Masato Kamikubo, a political scientist at Ritsumeikan University, told AFP before the election that Noda’s stance “is sort of similar to the LDP’s”.

“He is basically a conservative. The CDP or Noda can be an alternative to the LDP. Many voters think so,” he said. — AFP