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There is no certainty that Russian President Vladimir Putin will take new military action, but Britain, the United States and other NATO allies seem increasingly to prefer the possibility of “war” over the possibility of a negotiated solution to the crisis.
According to Sky News Arabia, a Western military officer, analyzing the current British situation, said: “At the moment, Putin has all the cards. I think he will definitely go to war.”
However, the reality on the ground is difficult to ignore by the Russians, unless it is a very sophisticated “hoax” from Putin.
The buildup of Russian forces and weapons around Ukraine’s borders has continued to expand, now numbering about 130,000 military personnel, despite condemnation from Western allies and pressure on the Kremlin for the withdrawal of forces.
In one of the most emphatic indications that the Russian military is preparing to attack rather than merely conduct exercises, Reuters reported that supplies of blood and other medical materials to treat the victims are part of the Russian buildup.
President Putin has consistently denied any plans to launch another invasion of Ukraine – although he has also denied any involvement in Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 until it became a reality.
An unnamed British defense and security expert whose opinion is highly valued about Russia’s method of war noted: “Putin believes that the West’s position is not a sufficient deterrent to prevent him from taking military action because there is neither a strong Western political will to act nor sufficient military capacity to prevent it.”
He added: “At this stage, the Russian military doctrine plays a direct role. This provides for the achievement of surprise and shock, the maximum use of all available lethal force, the speed of operations and the rapid achievement of the critical objectives of the operation.”
The expert stressed that the Russian operation would include the destruction of Ukraine’s ability to provide military resistance, its government system would be replaced, and foreign assistance would be prevented.
“The Russian military operation will be accompanied by an intense political process, a massive disinformation campaign, and an economic war (such as gas and wheat),” the expert said.
The war expert warned: “It is difficult to imagine what the West could use to realistically threaten Russia, and what could be a deterrent to war at this late stage.”
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