Joe Biden has secured 238 delegates to the Electoral College. Donald Trump has already won 213. To secure a majority, White House candidates have to get 270 delegates. The race threatens to turn into a marathon of days, with the final outcome depending on the seven states that still need to be determined. Biden needs 32 more voters, Trump than 57.
BY STATES
— ALASKA: Elects 3 delegates. Donald Trump leads the way with 61.4% in this state that, since 1964, has not elected a Democratic President. Only 36% of the votes are counted. The rest will only be known within a week.
– NORTH CAROLINE: Elects 15 delegates and the Republican candidate leads the way with 50.1%. The final result will not be known anytime soon, as votes posted in the mail will be counted until election day and will be received by 12 November.
– GEORGIA: The count has already exceeded 90% and Trump leads with 50.5%. Correspondence votes can be important in determining the final outcome, but the state secretary said he hoped there would be some results this Wednesday. Elects 16 delegates.
— MICHIGAN: Elects 16 delegates and Trump leads with 49.4%, with 86% of the votes counted. It is possible that the final results will be known this Wednesday night.
– NEVADA: Joe Biden leads in this state that elects 6 members of the electoral college. It goes with 49.3%, followed very closely by Trump (48.7%). Until November 10, votes sent by post are counted.
– PENNSYLVANIA: Of the missing states, he elects the most delegates: 20. The President comfortably leads the way with 55.1% of the vote. The final result should not be known before 6 November.
– WISCONSIN: It seems, at this moment, the tighter race of the seven: Joe Biden takes 49.5% and Donald Trump takes 48.8%. They are separated by about 11,000 votes, in this state that elects 10 delegates. The race could be closed this Wednesday.
BY CANDIDATES
DONALD TRUMP
If he wins in Pennsylvania, where 75% of the vote is counted and where the Republican has a comfortable 11.5% advantage, Donald Trump hoards an important 20 delegates. However, 37 are missing. In Michigan, with 86% of the newsletters counted, Trump has just over a percentage point advantage (49.4% versus 48.9%), which can guarantee him another 16 delegates.
The remaining 21 delegates that Trump needs to insure the White House can arrive from North Carolina, where only 5% of the votes remain and where Trump leads with a 1.4% margin. That means another 15 delegates for the Republicans. If all these hypothetical scenarios are confirmed, the current President of the United States is missing only 6 more delegates.
This can be achieved in Georgia, where Trump outperforms Biden by 2.2%, with 92% of the results so far. If there is no turnaround, Republicans can put another 16 delegates in their pockets.
JOE BIDEN
Joe Biden’s path to victory is shorter, he only needs to win 43 more delegates, but it also looks more complicated. Let’s go to the accounts. It guaranteed 11 delegates in Arizona, where the first turn of the night took place compared to 2016. The remaining 32 are already much more complicated.
A turnaround in Wisconsin, where Biden has a very short 0.7% lead, could represent an important 10 delegates for Joe Biden. And where can the other 22 be for Democrats?
Equally tough is the situation in Nevada, where Biden has a meager 0.6% advantage, when 14% of the votes remain to be counted. If the blue color prevails in this state, 6 more precious delegates can make way for Biden. 16 would be missing.
Biden may, it seems, forget the 20 delegates from Pennsylvania, where he loses to Trump by a margin of 11.5%.
The 16 delegates that Biden would need would have to arrive from Michigan or Georgia. Either of these two states alone guarantees that number at the Electoral College. Both territories are being highly contested, with the two candidates very close. Trump leads in both.
Georgia, with 92% of the votes counted, gives the Republican an advantage of two more percentage points and therefore seems less favorable to Biden.
With only 84% of the ballots counted, the Democratic candidate has to catch up with the 0.5% handicap in Michigan. Joe Biden’s promised land may be there to get to the White House.
In update. Numbers taken from the “The New York Times” website and updated at 12:20 pm in mainland Portugal
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