“Biden” or “Trump” .. Who will become the 46th US President?...

The Future Center for Research and Advanced Studies published, on Monday, an analysis by Hussam Ibrahim, about the US presidential elections, and the analysis posed the question, “Who will become the 46th US President … Biden or Trump?” To the polls, on Tuesday, November 3, to choose between President “Trump”, the 45th president sitting in power, and his rival, the Democratic candidate, “Joe Biden”. American No. (46)? Will Trump get a second term? Or will he lose the race and “Biden” will control the White House in the next four years?

In general, the scenarios for the election results will revolve around four possibilities: Biden wins the electoral college and the public votes, or loses either of them, or Trump wins the electoral college, or loses either of them. And the most likely scenario – according to opinion polls – is that Biden wins the public votes and the electoral college to become the next president, and to a lesser extent the scenario of Trump winning the electoral college, but the matter depends, first and foremost, on the accuracy of the opinion polls.

Major determinants

The 2020 US presidential elections took place under four main determinants that cast a shadow over the course of the electoral process, and some of them will have a decisive role in influencing the results of those elections, and these determinants include the following:

1- Corona crisis: The (Covid-19) crisis is the main determinant affecting the US presidential elections, as the crisis that began in early 2020 and increased in intensity from the beginning of March, changed the course of the presidential race, and all aspects related to it, as the crisis was the main factor in The Democratic Party’s choice of “Joe Biden” as the party’s candidate in the elections, and a state of consensus within the party that his leftist rival, “Bernie Sanders”, should withdraw in April, after an internal strategic assessment in the party that the continuation of “Sanders” means that the Democrats may lose the elections in Confronting “Trump”. On the other hand, the crisis played a major role in determining how the Democratic and Republican conferences would be held in August, in addition to that, the crisis prompted the US states to change their electoral laws to allow voting by mail and early voting in polling stations. The main aspect related to the repercussions of the crisis on the electoral scene is that the Trump administration, which many within the American community consider a failure, may cost him the presidential seat.

The day before voting in the elections, Monday, November 2, the figures and statistics on the number of injuries and deaths in the United States of America reflect an unprecedented situation in the American decline, according to Johns Hopkins University estimates, the number of injuries reached 9,208,956 injuries (about more From 9 million two hundred thousand injuries), and the number of deaths reached 231,003 deaths (that is, more than two hundred and thirty thousand cases), and these numbers are higher than their rates in European countries and in Canada, which shows – according to some estimates – the extent of the failure of the Trump administration ».

2- The economic situation: Before the escalation of the (Covid-19) crisis in March 2020, President Trump’s position was at its best. His administration succeeded in achieving the highest unemployment reduction rates in years, and public opinion polls indicated that the rate of evaluation The president’s performance is very high, but the situation has turned upside down after the month of March, in light of the closure of states as part of precautionary measures, and with the suspension of many economic activities, unemployment rates increased again among Americans, and despite the administration’s success in achieving a relative improvement in September. And in October, unemployment rates decreased again, but the number of jobs lost was greater than those that were restored, and given that the economy and jobs are a major factor in determining the choices of the American electorate, the economic downturn affected Trump’s chances.

3- The racial discrimination crisis: The political discourse adopted by President “Trump” and his administration during the past four years helped to increase the intensity of polarization within American society, especially in terms of racial discrimination between the components of society, and the intensity of this polarization with the rise of the American right, and white racists within the society. Concurrently, a feeling of injustice grew within other ethnic groups, especially blacks, and the incidents of killing black citizens by some police officers in separate incidents led to a state of turmoil within society, and demonstrations calling for equality, and President “Trump” and his administration stood in a position against those demonstrations, And the idea of ​​racial discrimination in society in general, which led to a decline in popularity among some black voters.

4- External interference in the elections: One of the determinants that cast a shadow over the elections, related to the estimates of the US intelligence and security services of the existence of attempts to interfere with outside countries in the elections, specifically China, Russia and Iran, through their massive campaigns of misinformation, to push American voters to prefer One candidate over another. According to these estimates, China and Iran are trying to support Biden in confronting Trump, while Russia is working to support the latter. Although these external interference attempts have been confronted and limited by the security services, there is no indication or mechanism by which to measure their actual impact on the elections.

Electoral variables

Parallel to the main determinants that affected the US presidential elections, there were some variables that some or all of them will contribute to affecting the results of the electoral process. In this context, the following aspects may be mentioned:

1- The state of media polarization: The American media, especially the main channels and newspapers, was divided in its coverage of the elections into two currents: the liberal media stream that supported “Biden” and mainly aligned with him, especially CNN and the New York Times, for example. And the current conservative media, such as Fox News, which supported “Trump.” Regardless of the discrepancies between the two currents in covering the elections, however, the investigative investigation published by the New York Times on President Trump’s tax record, which showed that Trump did not pay in the first year of his presence in power more than 750 US dollars, Contributed to undermining President Trump’s image in many sectors of American public opinion.

2- Presidential debates: The 2020 US presidential elections witnessed two presidential debates out of three; The first was on September 29, and the second on October 15, and it is estimated that President Trump performed better in the second debate compared to Biden’s performance. A debate was also held between Vice President Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. The performance of Harris was not “Biden’s deputy is very good at it. Although the three debates did not change much of the electoral scene, they did contribute to highlighting the positions of each of the candidates, and consolidating their position in their electoral bases, but they did not significantly affect the change of orientation of a large group of hesitant and inconclusive voters.

3- Opinion polls: There are many opinion polls that were conducted during the last weeks in the elections. Some focus on choosing between “Trump” or “Biden” candidates, and some focus on measuring the level of preference for President “Trump” in managing the files of government. The first is Biden ahead of “Trump”, whether at the national or state level, and the second group polls showed a decline in the president’s preference and negative evaluation of his performance, and with the passage of days these same polls helped to increase the gap between “Trump” and “Biden” Biden’s progress in the national polls had an impact on the polls in the states, and the decline in the level of preference for “Trump” as president has contributed to Biden’s interest.

4- Early voting: More than 43 US states have amended their electoral laws to allow early voting, whether through mail letters, or attending polling stations, and as of Sunday evening, November 1, more than 90 million voters voted, including about 60 million who voted in mail letters, About 30 people attend the polls in person. According to estimates, early mail voting may help Democrats mobilize their voting forces, especially since Republicans will rely more on voting in the polling stations on Election Day, and the heavy participation of Democratic voters or those who will vote for Biden, will Influence in resolving results.

End-of-race scenarios

The determinants and variables that affected the US presidential elections 2020, will largely determine the results of these elections, which revolve around four main scenarios. Regardless of the post-election repercussions, in light of what is being raised about the possibility of “Trump” refusing to accept the election results and leaving the White House, and the occurrence of violence within the American states, the following can be noted:

The first scenario – “Biden” winning the public votes and the electoral college: This scenario assumes the success of the Democratic candidate, “Joe Biden”, in winning the public votes at the state level and achieving votes higher than “Trump”. If we assume that the number of voters who will vote in the elections will reach 150 million according to expectations, it is likely that 65 to 75 million electoral votes will vote for Biden in the context of this scenario, or a number slightly higher or less than this number, He will vote for President “Trump” between 60 to 65 million votes, given that the result of the 2016 presidential elections between “Hillary Clinton” and “Trump”, “Hillary” achieved more than 65 million votes and “Trump” more than 62 Million votes.

The most important part of this scenario is the necessity to translate “Biden” the numbers of public votes into real weight in the electoral college. Public votes – in and of themselves – are not important, but the translation of these votes in the electoral college, and this scenario depends mainly on the assumption of the validity of polls estimates. Opinion that favors Biden over “Trump” in crucial and major states, and that “Biden” included at least 290 votes in the electoral college, in which case “Biden” will be the next US president.

The second scenario – Biden winning the public vote and losing the electoral college: This scenario assumes a repeat of the 2016 election experience, when Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the public vote and lost the electoral college. In this scenario, “Biden” is likely to win the largest number of public votes, but translating these votes into the electoral college will be less than the 270 votes needed to win the electoral college. In the event that this scenario is realized, President “Trump” will be the next president, and he will win a second term. In general, this scenario is possible if Trump succeeds in garnering 270 votes in the electoral college, and opinion polls support the assumption that this scenario is possible, but it is highly uncertain, because the difference in opinion polls between “Biden” and “Trump” In some states, it is limited, at the limits of 3.5%, and if Trump succeeds in surpassing this difference, which is close to the margin of error, it is possible that an electoral surprise will occur.

The third scenario – Trump wins the public votes and the electoral college: This scenario assumes Trump’s success in garnering the loudest votes in the public vote and achieving 270 votes in the electoral college. According to public opinion polls, it is difficult for “Trump” to succeed in winning the public vote, because the difference between him and “Biden” in opinion polls at the national level is large. The average of opinion polls indicates that this difference is in the range of 8.5%, but theoretically it is likely to happen. Trump »Breakthroughs in some major or crucial states enable him to win the electoral college, in which case he will ensure that he continues in the White House for another four years.

The fourth scenario – Trump loses the public votes and the electoral college: This scenario assumes that President Trump fails to achieve any progress over his rival, Biden, whether in the public vote or the electoral college.

In general and according to the preliminary estimates based on opinion polls, and if those polls are accurate and do not have a systematic bias; The scenario of “Biden” winning the public votes and the electoral college may be the most likely scenario in the US presidential election 2020, followed by a less likely scenario, which is Biden winning the public votes and losing the electoral college, which means Trump won the presidency, and the third scenario remains unlikely, The fourth scenario is the opposite scenario to the first scenario.

In conclusion, with the start of the final vote in the 2020 US presidential elections, on Tuesday, November 3, these elections are approaching their end, and in light of my theoretical assumption that opinion polls are accurate and that there are no systematic biases in them, the Democratic candidate, Biden, is on the threshold of the White House, with public votes And the electoral college, but in light of the assumption of systematic errors in the opinion polls, and the possibility of “Trump” achieving a breakthrough in the votes of the electoral college, it is possible that he will continue as president for another four years, and this matter is difficult, but it is possible and possible.