Trump’s defenders claim he is tough on China. His advisors certainly are, but Trump himself is wildly inconsistent. If he is re-elected, he may well revert to his earlier plan of making a “deal” with Xi.
Trump brought proprietary business and disinformation to the Oval Office. It has undermined American institutions and corroded American confidence. He has repelled capable Republicans and turned citizens against each other.
After all, it sparked a weak US response to the coronavirus, with 225,000 dead so far. COVID-19 has now cost more American lives than in World War I, September 11, and the Vietnam War combined. Trump’s America looks fragile and feverish.
When it comes to foreign policy, Joe Biden believes in a model of US leadership that has been largely harmless to the world and extremely beneficial to Australia. No wonder polls from the Lowy Institute show that nearly three-quarters of Australians would prefer Biden as the next president.
Is biden perfect? Far from it. He lacks the brilliant political skills of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. I wish he were younger: the leaders of the world should be in the prime of their lives.
In the White House, Biden would likely stay away from the details and focus on the biggest decisions. Ronald Reagan did that quite effectively.
Biden would be tougher for China than Obama because Beijing’s foreign policy has tightened over the past four years and Washington’s focus has shifted at the same time.
A Biden administration would present us with challenges. It’s hard to imagine Scott Morrison having as close a relationship with Biden as he was with Trump. It would be a more competitive field: other world leaders would rather run towards the White House than away from it. Ambassador Arthur Sinodinos’ work in Washington, DC would be more difficult. But I would support Australia to effectively compete for the ears of the new government.
Climate change policies would be uncomfortable for the Morrison administration. Biden’s senior policy advisor Jake Sullivan recently told me for my podcast: The chairman of the directorthat climate change would be “a major priority” for Biden. The new president would “bring the nations of the world together to get everyone to improve their game … He will hold countries like China accountable for doing more, but he will also push our friends to do more and to reinforce and fulfill their responsibility for a fundamentally global problem. ”
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If Donald Trump is re-elected, he will be encouraged – and unleashed. America is being pushed to the breaking point; The US-led international order will continue to degenerate.
When Joe Biden is elected, a certain amount of normalcy will return. The madness will subside. That in itself would be a blessed relief. It’s always interesting to sum up the positive and negative aspects of the presidential candidates. But there is an emergency in the United States in 2020. The warning lights flash red. The preferred outcome for Australia is clear.
Michael Fullilove is the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute.
Trump Biden 2020
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