In the last week leading up to the Queensland election on Saturday, record numbers of voters went to the ballot box in what is widely touted as the most important election in the state’s recent history.
Political scientist and lecturer at Griffith University, Dr. Paul Williams said there were at least 32 fringe seats where the incumbent held less than 5 percent of the margins. This could steer the choice both ways, with a minimum of nine “must” seats.
Dr. Williams said whichever party occupied the three main seats in Townsville would “most likely win the government.”
Votes for the Greens are likely to increase in most voters, but Dr. Williams said support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party could decline, and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party wouldn’t rise.
In the meantime, Katter’s Australian party would likely keep its three seats but not win any others.
Preferences will matter, although fewer people will follow the voting cards.
LNP and Labor each have 15 seats with margins below 5 percent; They are considered a must for both parties.
Antony Green, an analyst for ABC elections, said the top nine seats for that election are Bonney, Burleigh, Caloundra, Currumbin, Gaven, Glass House, Maryborough, Pumicestone and Theodore.
This is where Dr. Williams from those seats.
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INCUMBENT: Sam O’Connor, LNP (1.7 percent margin)
The LNP, a new electorate formed before the 2017 elections, holds the Gold Coast seat with a margin of 1.7 percent.
That seat could be awarded to either the ALP or the LNP this time, depending on whether Prime Minister Annastacia Palaszczuk has received a strong gratitude vote.
“We know that there have been many backlashes against the border closure on the Gold Coast. These places felt hard, “said Dr. Williams.
“But there could be a silent majority that Labor would gain ground.”
Dr. Williams said that while he didn’t expect the seat to change hands, “anything could happen.”
INCUMBENT: Michael Hart, LNP (4.9 percent margin)
While Labor hopes so-called “celebrity candidate” Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew will help them get the seat out of the LNP, which holds the central seat on the Gold Coast with a 4.9 percent margin, Dr. Williams, this is unlikely.
“If Labor wins this seat, it won’t be because of an old surfer. This could be because of a gratitude vote for Palaszczuk, or because he has other references that make him a better candidate, ”said Dr. Williams.
“Prominent candidates work better in regional areas where they are known in the city. These communities are more insular. that is not the case here. ”
Dr. Williams predicted the Greens’ vote, which stood at 16.1 percent in 2017, could rise alongside Labor, but incumbent MP Michael Hart is likely to keep the seat.
Retired: Mark McArdle LNP (3.4 percent margin)
The LNP holds this once secure seat with a margin of 3.4 percent.
The resignation of Mark McArdle, who has held the seat since 2004 and was the one-time LNP leader, could mean trouble for the party in this massive growth corridor.
“It’s a natural liberal constituency full of wealthy retirees, but the influx of young families with mortgages could help Labor,” said Dr. Williams.
This is a winnable seat for Labor. The two independents on this spot are “problematic” for the LNP and should not be underestimated.
“You could spray your preferences anywhere,” said Dr. Williams.
“It will be a moral blow to the LNP if they lose this seat.”
INCUMBENT: Laura Gerber, LNP (3.3 percent margin)
Although the southernmost seat on the Gold Coast didn’t hold a by-election until March after the resignation of longtime LNP MP Jann Stuckey, Dr. Williams, the seat is for everyone.
Ms. Stuckey was a very popular candidate, and although the seat was held by the LNP, many voters disliked Deb Frecklington. While it should be safe, given its long history of blue voting, the LNP is afraid of losing it as it lost ground in the by-elections.
“It would also be a moral blow to the LNP to lose that seat,” said Dr. Williams.
Anna Palmer, the wife of mining billionaire Clive, is a candidate to Dr. However, Williams said she was unlikely to earn more than five points and said “don’t overestimate Palmer”.
One independent candidate who could cause trouble for the big parties is Dr. Richard Stuckey, husband of former MP Jann.
“That will divert support from the LNP, and many of those votes will go straight to Labor,” said Dr. Williams.
“Nobody should be surprised if Currumbin is lost just because of the Stuckey variables (versus the LNP).”
INCUMBENT: Meaghan Scanlon, ALP: 0,7 Prozent
The only Labor seat on the Gold Coast is another must-see for Dr. Williams and one the reigning Meaghan Scanlon has to win.
With just a gossamer margin, the seat could turn blue on hundreds of votes, but Dr. Williams said it was likely to be retained.
“Before COVID I would say this would have been gone … But there are some strong Labor pockets in this northern part of the Gold Coast,” said Dr. Williams.
“I think there will be a lot of thank-you voices, people like Palaszczuk and their strong border measures.”
There are 5,000 new voters enrolled in this electorate, making it difficult to predict.
And Dr. Williams said all could be null and void if Queensland saw a new group of COVID-19 in the last week of the campaign, making this an unpredictable seat to call early on.
INCUMBENT: Andrew Powell, LNP (3,4 Prozent).
The LNP experienced a significant boom in the 2017 elections, despite the member’s having held the seat since 2009.
Labor also suffered a blow when One Nation led a candidate who received about 23 percent of the vote.
Dr. Williams predicted that One Nation would lose a significant amount of traction in this election and likely only gain 10 to 15 points.
The Greens vote will take place in a glass house, as will Labor, and the LNP should also win more votes as former One Nation voters split between the two major parties.
“It could go either way, unless I had to choose, I’d say the LNP is more likely to keep its seat than lose it,” said Dr. Williams.
“But anything can happen. That’s only a few thousand votes. ”
INCUMBENT: Bruce Saunders, ALP (2.5 percent)
While Dr. Williams does not see this as a key seat, it is a must for Labor as it faces no significant competition from the LNP.
One nation had the second highest vote in the 2017 election, but Dr. Williams again predicts these voters will return to a big party – and in this part of the state, it’s more likely to be red.
“This is not a nation’s choice … the tide is right-wing populist,” said Dr. Williams.
Labor won 45 percent of the primary vote in the last election and scored a similar result, with LNP coming in second.
“This is problematic for the Labor Party with preferences, but given that their main vote should be high with a gratitude vote and Deb Frecklington is not gaining traction in the regions, Labor is pretty well placed to keep that seat,” said Dr. Williams.
Retirement: Simone Wilson LNP MP (0.8 percent)
Pumicestone is a “super interesting” seat whose electorate includes Bribie Island and the working class heartland of Caboolture. In the past eight years, Pumicestone has had four members and will be looking at a fifth.
Voters are likely to be looking for a “revolving door” to stability, and Dr. Williams predicts that they will put their trust in Labor – and vote.
However, this is extremely marginal, and there are little more than 500 votes on the margins.
LNP candidate Fiona Gaske is new to the area and has served a tenure as deputy mayor on a council in southwest Queensland.
“Labor would like to take this back,” said Dr. Williams.
Dr. Williams believes that Labor and LNP will likely rise, One Nation will fall and the Greens will rise slightly.
“This is extremely valuable for Labor,” said Dr. Williams.
INCUMBENT: Mark Boothman, LNP (3.7 percent margin)
This is only the second choice this seat on the Northern Gold Coast has contested. It is a must for the LNP and can be won by Labor.
Dr. Williams finds it strange to classify given the large population.
Votes in this electorate could be divided on sentiment over the border and the economic downtown area, with a critical mass potentially angry with the Palaszczuk government’s handling of the pandemic and border closings.
Dr. Williams said support for the strict border measures is not just geographical, but age-dependent, and the older population could swing in favor of Labor.
“There could be a large enough number of families (made hard by) that could potentially outweigh the retirees,” said Dr. Williams.
“It is impossible to say. The LNP has to hold that seat and is better placed, but Labor is winnable. ”
LNP HAS TO GAIN SEATS
Dr. Williams says the following fringe spots are high on the LNP’s agenda:
- Aspley, ALP holds 1.2 percent
- Mansfield, ALP holds 1.6 percent
- Barron River, ALP holds 1.9 percent
- Keppel, ALP holds 3.1 percent (v ONP)
- Redlands, ALP hold 3.1 percent
- Springwood: ALP holds 3.6 percent
- Thuringia: ALP holds 4.1 percent (v One Nation)
- Mundingburra: ALP holds 1.1 percent
- Townsville ALP holds 0.4 percent
- Ferny Grove: ALP holds 4.6 percent
Other marginal ALP seats are Cairns, Gaven, Maryborough, Redcliffe and South Brisbane.
ALP MUST GAIN SEATS
Dr. Williams says the ALP is vying for victory in the following fringes:
- Whitsunday, Marginal LNP holds 0.7 percent (incumbent Jason Costigan now stands for North Queensland First)
- Burdekin: LNP share around 0.8 percent
- Clayfield: LNP share of 2.4 percent
- Coomera: LNP share by 3.5 percent
- Bundaberg: LNP holds 4.2 percent
- Everton: LNP holds 4.9 percent
Other marginal LNP seats are: Bonney, Burleigh, Caloundra, Chatsworth, Currumbin, Glass House, Lockyer, Moggill, Pumicestone and Theodore.
Other marginal seats include Maiwar, 1.6 percent owned by the Greens, and Mirani, 4.8 percent owned by One Nation.
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