The statistics that say Trump should win the election – E24

Only two presidents have not been re-elected with similar growth in the stock market. Donald Trump could be the third.

Published:Published: October 23, 2020 6:37 AM

It shows figures from The Socionomics Institue, which have been featured by CBS.

Throughout his presidency, the US economy has been important to Trump. According to CBS, the US stock market has increased by 32 percent in the last three years.

And if one is to believe Trump’s repeated statements during his election rallies, this is just the beginning. Despite the corona pandemic, the president believes that next year will be one of the best of all time.

If you look at the statistics CBS draws, it is perhaps no wonder Trump is so concerned about the economy. As many as 14 out of 16 presidents who have run for re-election with a stock market rise of more than 20 percent, have won the subsequent election.

According to the channel, only George W. Bush senior and John Adams have not been re-elected with such numbers. Bush lost the election in favor of Bill Clinton, despite the stock market being up as much as 38 percent. Adams was president at the end of the 18th century, when state-owned banks increased their value by about 30 percent.

“A positive trend in the market is historically associated with victory for the incumbent president,” Matthew Lampert, director of the Socionomic Institute, told CBS.

They claim the statistics indicate that Trump will win the election with a probability of 87 percent.

Can point to Biden instead

This gives Trump a historic advantage in terms of winning the election. Nevertheless, there are several reservations that can be taken into account.

According to CBS, some stock market experts have claimed that the recent rise in the stock market is actually in Biden’s favor, not Trump’s. Among other things, they have pointed out that the increase in share prices since September has been in line with the fact that the opposing candidate Biden has taken the lead in the opinion polls.

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In addition, researchers at The Socionomics Institute have stated that the stock market is a better indicator of who is chosen when growth is spread across different sectors. During Trump’s presidency, growth has been mainly in the technology sector.

In addition, the recent growth that is being discussed is based on the stock indices Dow Jones and the S&P 500, which measure only a fraction of the general stock market. If you look at the entire public stock market, the shares have fallen by 10 percent, according to CBS.

Smoother than the polls

The head of The Socionomics Institute, marketing strategist Robert Prechter, nevertheless maintains that stock market growth may have a bearing on the upcoming election.

– Trump is a controversial figure, and 2020 is far from a typical election year. Each choice has its reasons why it may be different, but history is what it is. We will see if it holds up this time, he says to CBS.

LPL Financial’s top marketing strategist, Ryan Detrick, also comes to a similar conclusion:

– We think it will be much more even than the opinion polls suggest right now, as we also saw in 2016, he writes in a note on the company’s website.

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