How much is Gallagher worth? Illuminating comparisons

How Much Is Brendan Gallagher Worth? How much is it worth in a collapsing market? That’s the multi-million dollar question!

Gallagher’s agent, Gerry Johansson, is used to being quiet. He never negotiates in the public square. Except that on Tuesday, he told Pierre LeBrun, from The Athletic site, that the talks were broken. Clearly, we wanted to send a signal that the first discussions did not go well. Is this a way to force the team’s hand or to suggest that Gallagher might want to quit if things don’t change? Only Johansson and Gallagher have the answer.

If we trust the comments made Tuesday by Marc Bergevin, Gallagher will have to adjust his salary demands if he intends to stay in Montreal.

Is it just the negotiation game or the tension that is really starting to build with one of the Habs most important players? Probably a bit of both.

Gallagher is part of the core of the team. His leadership, his enthusiasm, his determination and his perseverance make him an essential cog in the success of the CH.

At the same time, the urgency to keep Gallagher at all costs has diminished over the past few days. There is strong competition on the right flank. Josh Anderson, Joel Armia and Tyler Toffoli are all right-handed, though Toffoli says he’s ready to play on the left if the team so chooses. More than ever, Gallagher is competing for the position of number one right winger.

Very bad timing

The economic situation is difficult now and will be for another two or three seasons at least. The timing for those who, like Gallagher, have to renew their contract could not be worse. Gallagher will have to take this reality into account in his discussions with the Canadiens. There is a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the teams, causing owners to pay more attention than in the past. Not just in Montreal, but all over the NHL. Teams must exercise prudence and diligence in managing finances.

If I put myself in Gallagher’s shoes, I probably don’t want to give Canadians a “hometown discount”. When you think about it, Gallagher has outperformed his current contract. He could not be blamed for hoping for a return of the pendulum.

Plus, this is likely the Sherwood Park, Alta. Native’s last big contract. Difficult to get him to buy the concept of signing at a discount.

At the same time, Gallagher himself said when speaking to the media at the end of the season that what matters most to him is winning and that money is secondary.

The Canadians will not reveal their strategy or the internal budget allocated to Gallagher. The same goes for the agency that represents him.

4 scenarios for Gallagher

In order to see more clearly, I called on Idriss Bouhmouch, who consults for teams and agencies of the National Hockey League. The founder of The Hockey Code studied at HEC in Sports Management and Queen’s University in Commerce. The Montrealer has developed a very detailed program to analyze and compare contracts in the NHL.

Bouhmouch offers 4 scenarios for Gallagher: contracts of 4, 5, 6 and 7 years. He divides each proposal into three: a contract favorable to the team, a fair contract according to the market and a contract in a context where the player intends to take advantage of his leverage to test the market for independent players. See my interview with Idriss Bouhmouch in the video above.

Here’s, according to The Hockey Code, what Gallagher’s next contract might look like.

According to Idriss Bouhmouch’s analysis, Jordan Eberle and Gustav Nyquist could serve as comparables if Canadians seek to limit spending.

In the case of a give and take negotiation, Cam Atkinson and Brock Nelson are good examples.

If Gallagher is looking to hit a home run, which is unlikely in these times, he could rely on contracts from Chris Kreider and Brayden Schenn.