Europe’s surge in coronavirus cases due to reopening and pandemic fatigue

Scientists warned the world this spring: Nations saw a second, larger wave of coronavirus cases in the fall as they eased lockdown restrictions. This worst-case scenario has now come true in a number of European countries.

Daily cases in the UK have risen steadily since August, peaking at more than 17,000 daily cases on Thursday (barring a technical glitch that resulted in 23,000 cases being reported on October 4th). France has seen a similar pattern: on Wednesday, the nation reported 19,000 new cases in just 24 hours – the highest daily number to date.

In Belgium and Poland, new daily cases have exceeded the peaks of the first wave of infections. Cases are also increasing in Germany, Ireland, Italy and Sweden.

Public health experts have some ideas as to why.

There are more tests, but there is also more socializing

First of all, European countries are getting better and better at testing and monitoring. In early September, the UK carried out almost 45 times more tests than in early April, and France carried out almost eight times as many tests, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. At the beginning of September, the test capacity in Germany and Italy was also almost three times higher.

Another reason for the rise in infections is that European countries are lifting lockdown restrictions, thereby increasing social interactions – especially between younger groups. At a press conference on Monday, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical director of the World Health Organization COVID-19, said that “some” of the recent outbreaks have been linked to entertainment venues, religious establishments and sporting events.

This desire for sociability coincides with an increase in “pandemic fatigue” across Europe.

A recent WHO report found that a growing proportion of Europe’s residents are not following lockdown restrictions adequately or are reducing their efforts to stay informed about the pandemic. People may also perceive activity as a lower risk compared to when the pandemic started, although transmission is higher.

If countries relax lockdown restrictions, residents may get the wrong impression that certain activities are now safe and no longer economically necessary. For example, the UK’s Eat Out to Help Out program encouraged residents to visit restaurants, cafes and pubs in August by offering 50% discounts. But it might have undermined the message that eating indoors is relatively risky given the possibility of airborne transmission.

Over time, residents can become completely insensitive to health warnings.

“Even the most outrageous circumstances become normal when they occur over long periods of time,” the WHO report said. “People can get used to the pandemic and the threat that it poses, and complacency can arise.”

The falls climbed before schools reopened

Many European countries began to relax the lockdown restrictions already in the spring. Italy and Germany opened bars and restaurants again in May. France implemented the same measure in June and the UK followed suit in July.

An analysis by Morgan Stanley’s research unit, AlphaWise, found that half of the UK workers surveyed had returned to their normal jobs by August. This number was even higher in Spain, Italy and Germany, where three quarters of employees surveyed had returned to work. In France, more than 80% of the workers surveyed had returned in August.

When European countries reopened schools in the fall, cases were already starting to rise.

THOMAS SAMSON / AFP via Getty Images

Germany reopened schools on August 7th – a compromise for maintaining its bans on large public gatherings such as concerts and sporting events. Within a week, the country had identified around 150 coronavirus cases in schools, but most of those were single infections that were traced outside the classroom.

In French and British classrooms, the students were welcomed back in September.

Within four days of the schools reopening, 22 schools in France were temporarily closed due to coronavirus cases. At around the same time, the UK schools also began to temporarily close. The number of UK schools not fully open due to coronavirus cases rose from 1% on September 10th to 4% on September 17th.

That same month, the UK Emergency Scientific Advisory Group proposed a two-week lockdown to reduce transmission. Other scholars have suggested closing bars and restaurants to keep UK schools open.

“Pandemic fatigue” sets in when risk perception decreases

As residents of Europe have more opportunities to interact, they find it increasingly difficult to comply with lockdown restrictions.

Only 11% of UK residents exposed to a confirmed COVID-19 case said they were isolated at home for two weeks. This is the result of a survey by King’s College London, which was carried out from March to August and is still awaiting a peer review. Only 18% of respondents said they had not left home after developing COVID-19 symptoms in the past seven days.

Many respondents said they couldn’t be quarantined because they had a dependent child at home – but other Europeans might just get tired of restricting their movement. Surveys show that in the wake of the pandemic wages, people are becoming more and more stressed about their job or income while their risk perception has decreased.

Over time, people can begin to prioritize personal freedom over their own health.

Justin Tallis / AFP / Getty Images

Others may have trouble determining which activities are low-risk due to conflicting messages from public health officials. For example, at the start of the pandemic, UK health officials said there was “mixed” evidence on whether masks prevented transmission. Studies now mostly suggest it.

“Since the virus hit the European region eight months ago, citizens have made great sacrifices to contain COVID-19,” said Dr. Hans Henri Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe, on October 6th. “It came at an extraordinary cost. It got us all exhausted, regardless of where we live or what we do. In such circumstances, it is easy and natural to feel apathetic, demotivated, and experience fatigue. ”

One group that may be particularly affected by “pandemic fatigue” – teenagers and young adults – is also a major driver of coronavirus transmission.

While young people are less susceptible to serious consequences, rising cases in younger groups seem to be already accelerating hospital stays in Europe. UK hospitals now have more coronavirus patients than they did in March when the country’s lockdown began, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“What we are starting to see worryingly in countries like France, the UK, Ireland and other countries are rising hospital stays and increasing intensive care occupancy,” said Dr Mike Ryan, the Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program. “It is really important that health systems can cope with an increase in cases in hospitals and intensive care units in the coming weeks.”