Energy experts reveal the factors that control oil prices next year

According to energy experts, the price index is expected to rise again at the beginning of the new year, which is likely to be more stable in terms of energy prices.

Oil prices fell, yesterday, Friday, and also recorded a weekly loss, as the increase in cases of the mutated Omicron strain of the Corona virus raised fears of new restrictions that harm the demand for fuel.

Brent crude futures ended the session down $1.50, or two percent, to $73.52 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.52, or 2.1 percent, to $70.86 a barrel.

Brent fell 2.6% on a weekly basis, and WTI fell 1.3%.

In this context, the Lebanese energy expert, Rabih Yaghi, said that the new variable affects more European countries consuming oil and its derivatives.

He added in his speech toSputnik“The curfews, bans and partial closures greatly affect oil prices, especially in the event of an imbalance between supply and demand as a result of the measures that may be taken.

He pointed out that prices are likely to decline in the coming days, if demand continues to decline, while expectations for the next year depend on the ability of “OPEC Plus” to limit the increase in production, especially since increased production leads to stability or decline.

He believes that the demand for oil next year is likely to reach 99 million or 100 million barrels per day, while the existing abundance represents about 97 million barrels.

He explained that if the consequences of the new mutation were exceeded, or if no major closures occurred, prices could reach about $100.

For his part, Mohamed Benabou, a Moroccan energy and climate expert, said that when knowing the truth of the new mutation, oil prices experienced several fluctuations, but as soon as it was certain that this mutation would not have negative health consequences on the health situation, and the high number of deaths, prices returned to stability with a decline Fears of the strain’s effectOmicronmutated from the Corona virus.

And he added, in his speech to “Sputnik”, that “Brent” crude futures rose by a very small percentage, and the US “West Texas Intermediate” crude futures rose with them, after they fell last week.

With regard to the total closure and the possibility of a return to it again, and its effects, he explained that they are sectoral closures or related to stopping travel and closing the borders, taking into account the permissibility of vaccination and laboratory analyzes, as it is possible to witness closures due to celebrations on New Year’s Day, but the third dose may represent a breakthrough. imminent with its circulation to all parts of the world.

He believes that price fluctuations will continue with the emergence of new mutations, and the lack of citizens’ demand for the vaccine, which disrupts the process of collective protection against the virus.

For his part, Algerian energy expert Bouziane Mahma said that the prices of a barrel of oil raw materials remain high, especially in light of the so-called “Black Friday” day, in which the prices of various raw materials fell, and the decline, which reached 9 dollars, but the prices returned to a higher level. From the last 11 months.

In his speech to “Sputnik”, he added that the average prices during the current year are about $70, while it fluctuates above $70, and that prices will remain high during the next year.

He pointed to three factors affecting oil prices, on top of which are the various variables, whether they are “omicron” or other variables, in addition to the possible closure and suspension of flights to and from some countries, which could affect oil derivatives.

The second factor is the lack of investments, especially in light of the significant decline during the past two years, which was estimated at 35 percent in exploration and production, and in general in the oil and gas industry.

The third factor is the energy transition, which is heading towards coal, especially in light of the high Natural gasThis means that the interaction of the three factors leads to spikes in oil prices.

He pointed out that the state of inflation in the global economy casts a shadow on the various prices and the value of the dollar and affects all oil derivatives, as well as all commodities.

He believes that gas prices will remain high during the next year, which means that they will push oil prices at high levels.

On the other hand, the US Department of Energy said, on Friday, that it would sell 18 million barrels of oil
From the strategic petroleum reserve, provided that offers from companies to buy it on the fourth of January, as part of the previously announced release of reserves with the aim of calming fuel prices, according to Reuters.