Dow tanks as promising Oxford vaccine halted

Hind Al Soulia - Riyadh - By Rony Nehme

LONDON — US equities have extended their weakness with the S&P falling 2.8 per cent and NDX crumbling by 4.8 percent (a greater than 2 standard deviation move and now down around 10% since last Wed). All sectors finished in the red, though the move was led by mega-cap tech stocks (with Tesla fealling 21%).

In FX, the USD strengthened against G10 save the JPY (+0.2%), with NOK the underperformer (-2.2%) alongside a sharp slide lower in oil prices (WTI -7.6%). Overnight, following the US close news came out that the Astrazeneca COVID-19 vaccine, one of the leading potential vaccines, has been put on hold. S&P futures show losses extending this morning.

GBP underperformance continues, with recent market favorite being long EURGBP being put to the sword. The ‘bearish’ UK related headlines continue to follow, late last night UK PM Johnson announced that social gatherings of groups of more than 6 people will be banned from Sept. 14 across the whole of England, as a result of a recent spike in the number of cases.

The UK PM has been framing a no deal as a good thing in a more targeted manner, calling it an Australian deal because it is more PR friendly. The UK government has reportedly drawn up a bill that breaks the Withdrawal Agreement and International Law, though details have yet to be published, Cabinet Minister Brandon Lewis confirmed in the House of Commons that ‘this does break international law in a specific limited way.’ This has resulted with the resignation of Jonathan Jones the Head of UK Government Legal Department due to his unhappiness at the decision to violate an International Treaty.

All eyes on ECB tomorrow, following the strong rally in EURUSD and core CPI at the lowest ever, the ECB has been talking the EUR lower over the last couple weeks. Market expects the ECB to repeat the verbal interventions against further EUR strength, although policy options are limited for now.

EURUSD — closed below 1.18 along with the 200-period MA and the 5-month trend line, as expectations of dovish ECB and risk aversion in stock markets boosted Eurozone government bonds, pushing yields lower. The yields are likely to remain under pressure today if global stocks and oil extends their decline. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index started to break to the upside, if the bullish momentum persists, we could see the single currency retesting 1.17, which is the line in the sand for the bulls.

GBPUSD — trades below 1.30 for the first time since July as fears of no-deal Brexit and recall of the coronavirus-led restrictions weigh on the quote. UK PM Boris Johnson’s fresh restrictions, based on the latest resurgence in the pandemic, are likely to impact the recently picked up economic activities. Moreover, fears of the BOE’s rate cut gains momentum once again and drag the pair lower. Today, any Brexit update will be key to watch, however, if we receive no positive updates from the UK-EU negotiations, then traders will be risking another gloomy day amid this light calendar and risk-averse sentiment.

USDJPY — the dollar/ yen broke below the 106 support yesterday as the market mood remained sour after AstraZeneca halted its COVID-19 vaccine trials. However, broad US dollar strength limited the downside in the spot. US indexes were sharply down in the first trading day of the week as the rout in tech shares continued. The Nasdaq lost over 400 points and was the worst performer. The poor performance of US equities weighed on Treasury yields, which also edged lower. Today, if equities continue to drop, then the pair will likely follow as the bears will be targeting the 105.50 support.

FTSE 100 — ended yesterday’s session in the red on a daily reversal bar close favoring further lower prints today with airliners and healthcare stocks expected to weigh down on the index, outweighing a weaker pound, after UK’s Johnson tightened lockdown measures and the Astrazeneca vaccine got halted due to one patient suffering a severe reaction. An hourly close below our support level at 5885 should confirm bearish momentum with 5800 as the next support target.

DOW JONES — tanked by more than 700 points in Tuesday’s session as heavyweight technology stocks continued to lead the selloff and the halting of the most promising Oxford vaccine, after one patient suffered a serious adverse reaction, weighed down on market sentiment with technicals favoring lower prints with 27400 and 27175 as the next support targets.

DAX 30 — ended yesterday’s session in the red on daily bearish engulfing candle favoring further downside in today’s session with 12875 and 12800 as the next closest support targets as investors look ahead to Thursday’s ECB policy meeting.

GOLD — held steady in yesterday’s session caught by a strengthening dollar on one side and a selloff in equities on the other. Increasing uncertainty towards the Oxford vaccine, geopolitical tensions and Indo-China border tensions should keep the yellow supported as investors look ahead to today’s JOLTs job openings with 1920 support level to hold favoring further upside with 1945 and 1960 as the next resistance targets.

USOIL — WTI Crude tanked by 6% to end yesterday’s session sub $40 at $36.73 for the first time since mid-June on the back of worsening US-China relations, a retreat in global stocks, and the halting of the Oxford vaccine, with all eyes on EIA short term energy outlook and API’s weekly inventory data to be released today. Short term technicals favor a bounce higher with 36 key support level to watch.

— The writer is chief market analyst, Squared Financial