In general, when looking at horses’ likely odds of winning, most players will quickly realize what a standout favorite should be in a race.
They then tend to have a tendency to read the form to confirm that initial thought, looking for positive statistics or comments, or giving it more value than they otherwise would.
What then tends to happen is that the stakes become loose and proportionally too much bet on those who “should” win.
For example, Russian Camelot last week. It was the budget favorite, but I wonder how many have bet more than they should have. Even at his Betfair starting price of $ 1.49, he would still lose 33% of the time. This is why consistent staking out is so important.
Until this week we are seeing 15-25mm of rain before the Caulfield meeting, which makes it very difficult. Only 2mm fell Thursday when up to 10mm was expected.
Rain during a meeting will generally open the track much faster than previous rain. At this point it is quite difficult to bet safely on the Caulfield meeting.
There were differing views on the strength of the track on Wednesday. Craig Williams noted that there was a fair giving, others cited the fact that several horses were pulling sore to claim it was too tight.
I would lean on Williams’s mind and ask how good the 10mm plus will be. Of course, this is only effective for larger fields.
Randwick should be perfect for Everest, with little rain and wind forecasted, which is probably not a big factor.
Verry Elleegant is a worthy Caulfield Cup favorite, but not for $ 5. Image: Getty Images
Caulfield Cup (Rennen 9)
This seems like a deep race as these Group 1 handicaps should be.
An interesting historical fact that has been relevant for some time concerns the foreign horses having their first run in Australia in preparation. Including Taufan’s Melody win in 1998, there were 49 horses qualified for five winners.
If you all support to return $ 1 at the starting price, the cost is $ 3.13 for a $ 5 return (POT 59%). For me, not only would I support the horses overseas for that fact, but it’s very a consideration.
Darling VERY ELEGANT doesn’t need: a wet track, but it handles the conditions better than most of the others. Her evaluation of winning the Tancred over 2400 m on a Soft 7 last fall was a career highlight. I’m struggling to get them to market price given the depth of the race and have them $ 7 (up to 100%) but with the advantage when the rain hits.
Dalasan is also a sneaky opportunity. Image: Michael Klein
AS LONG AS is my clear overlay (valued $ 8). He created a perfect platform to do your best or even surpass your previous climax. He is third compared to this fourth place last year, when he could have won without a tough transit run.
His Turnbull Stakes run was phenomenal as he was three times far north. He carted Verry Elleegant straight into the race, but was still fighting on the line. Seems to be getting a very nice run and could easily prove to be the strongest stalker.
My other overlays are MIRAGE DANCERS who did his best to win The Metropolitan at the last start and DALASAN He was very good in the Turnbull, managed a wet track well and split up the Russian Camelot and Warning in the South Australian Derby in autumn.
The chances don’t stop there and I’m scared of them MASTER OF WINE So whoever has a perfect platform to explode to a new high even though I can only get it back to the $ 10 mark is not an overlay.
I have from the overseas horses ANTHONY VAN DYCK valued tips at $ 9. It held up well at the last start but it was a very slow time overall, especially when compared to the other 2400m races that day. Buckhurst ($ 17) could go back to its best rating, but the market seems to assume that it will definitely do so after rating it in its last two starts. DASHING WILLOUGHBY ($ 26) is a little overlay for me, but he’ll be in a world of trouble if he kicks slowly and / or cuts out the inside before the race. He may also be better suited for the Melbourne Cup 3200m.
Mirage Dancer was back to his best win the last time The Metropolitan was launched. Image: Getty Images
Everest (Race 7)
Not surprisingly, given the length of time the pre-post markets have been active, the public market is very similar to my market.
NATURAL STRIPES ($ 6.50) must be trusted to appear for its grand finale. At this point, I’d rather be against it than for it, since it’s just so terribly inconsistent. The opposite of it is GYTRASH Who made a flawless set of reviews that give them a platform for profit, albeit of little value compared to my $ 8 review.
CLASSIC LEGEND has to take another big step from what he’s shown so far. I’m thinking a step too far and ready to bet closer to $ 8 around it with my rating.
The horse that is of value to me is BEHEMOTH ($ 7). He has made some impressive ratings in his last two 1400m starts and will be very strong late in a race that could turn out to be brutal.
That said, if he’s sluggish, he’s almost the last to be buried on the fence, so he has some questions.
Behemoth looks very valuable in Everest. Image: Getty Images
The stable mates TREKKING and BIVOUAC can both win and both sit in the market that corresponds to where I have them. TOFANE ($ 17) is value, but she has to find that one All Aged Stakes rating that I think is a great anticipation. I am happy to work with the others, including LIBERTINI If you went to an extremely new PB at the last start, you have to repeat a query.
The Kosciuszko (Race 5)
The scratching of the front page this morning changed the complexion of this race with some heat coming off the pace. That is, try as I can, I cannot escape the view IT’S ME will win the race. She’s made everything so easy so far, including the fastest last 600m and 200m of the last start of the day when she was barely off.
Hardly any value game at around $ 2 should avoid the race.
Other early pieces:
There are a couple of other races I want to take part in early, one at each venue.
Randwick Race 3
This race seems to be geared towards pacemakers ONLY THINK and especially PURPLE SECTOR. Just Thinkin ‘drops from 2000m to 1600m and will likely lead the field. It will be Purple Sector who returned with a PB at the last start, especially on his first run since his gelding. It is likely to rise again and offers significant value over my $ 4.50 valuation.
Caulfeld race 1
ELECTRICAL SCHEME looks like one of the bets of the day for Caulfield. He was stopped behind Rich Hips at an important stage before ending strong and being beaten 1¼ lengths. He is handling wet conditions and is using the track for the first time. So if the inside chops out, his small pull doesn’t matter on the opener. Very little worry that it will go up from 1400m to 1700m but I will put my trust in the stable to get that right.
FRIDAY LINE – EARLY BETTING (41 units)
Caulfield Race 1 No 3 – Power Scheme ($ 3.30) – 19 Einheiten
Caulfield Race 9 No 9 – Finche ($ 13) – 6 units
Caulfield Race 9 No 14 – Dalasan ($ 17) – 4 units
Randwick Race 3 No 9 – Energy Sector ($ 6.50) – 12 units
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