Analysts believed that Macron’s Gulf tour showed a new attempt to establish a foothold for Paris in the region through the gateway to Lebanon, and to bet on extracting Gulf support for his current initiative about a year and a half after his first initiative faltered following the explosion of the port of Beirut in August 2020.
Through his new initiative, Macron is pushing – according to observers – towards the return of Saudi Arabia to Lebanon politically and financially, months after the formation of the Mikati government.
The efforts came a day after the Lebanese Minister of Information, George Kordahi, announced his resignation, at the request of Macron, and Mikati accepted it.
problematic items
According to observers, the French-Saudi-Lebanese statement included problematic issues that might make the “road map” fraught with obstacles, especially with regard to Hezbollah’s position on it.
The initiative was based on the following items:
- Comprehensive reforms by the Lebanese government, anti-corruption, and border controls
- Commitment to the Taif Agreement sponsored by Riyadh in 1989
- Restricting weapons to state institutions, and strengthening the role of the Lebanese army in order to preserve the security and stability of Lebanon
- Will Lebanon not be a springboard for terrorist acts that destabilize the security and stability of the region, and a source of drug trafficking?
- Compliance with Security Council Resolutions 1559, 1701 and 1680 and related international resolutions
- Establishing a Saudi-French humanitarian aid mechanism to alleviate the suffering of the Lebanese people
cloning
In turn, writer and political analyst Rosana Boumansef considers that the statement’s mention of international resolutions – including 1559 calling for the dissolution of militias and armed organizations – makes the Saudi-French road map a reproduction of what was previously presented by the international community without the ability to implement them, especially those related to Hezbollah’s influence.
Boumansef said that bin Salman’s response to the initiative “appeared to be just a compliment to Macron, because the full implementation of its terms is linked to difficult conditions, which made Lebanon just an item for the Saudi-French bargain.”
For his part, Ali Fadlallah, a professor of political science and international law, was surprised that Saudi Arabia builds its positions based on the survival or resignation of a minister.
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Fadlallah described the resignation of two ministers in one year (former Foreign Minister Charbel Wahba and then Qardahi) as “appeasement of Saudi Arabia” as a “historical precedent between countries.”
My timing and self-distancing
On the other hand, Nicolas Nahas, a member of the Al-Wasat parliamentary bloc (chaired by Mikati), called not to underestimate the seriousness and importance of the French-Saudi initiative, stressing to Al-Jazeera Net that it was developed according to a deliberate approach to build on its results, respectively.
Nahas refused to talk about the next steps, but the possibilities are open, in his opinion, in terms of returning ambassadors and taking practical measures to strengthen Saudi-Lebanese relations.
He said that the most important gain that Lebanon achieved through the agreement between bin Salman, Macron and Mikati is to open the horizon to pass what was cut off with the Gulf, and reduce tensions.
Some data spoke of Mikati obtaining internal guarantees – specifically from Saudi Arabia’s opponents – not to be abused, especially since Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (Hezbollah ally) played a major role in formulating a way out for Qardahi’s resignation.
Nahas pointed out that Mikati looks forward to the forces’ commitment to the policy of disassociation established by Mikati since 2011, “because it is the only guarantee to safeguard Lebanon’s interests and relations.”
He explained that Mikati will not back down from seeking to link Lebanon’s relations with its Arab and Gulf surroundings, describing this as one of the most important challenges for his government, given its positive role in all files, and he also expressed his optimism that a government session will be held soon.
electoral motives
While Lebanon is months away from the parliamentary elections in 2022, Boumansef and Fadlallah agree that the interest of all parties – local and regional – is to put an end to tensions, stressing that the French-Saudi move is not an initiative as much as anticipating the Lebanese reality ahead of the elections.
Fadlallah believes that France is not strong enough to impose a road map, and is rocking the boat only to wait for the possibility of obtaining results, as he put it.
Boumansef spoke about data about Macron’s success in persuading Saudi Arabia to advance and put pressure morally according to the following logic: “Lebanon should not be left in a sensitive stage before the elections, and in light of the weakness of the Sunni component and the fragility of its effective leaders (led by the Future Movement) means offering free gifts to Hezbollah and Iran behind it.”
Boumonsef links the French insistence to score points in Lebanon with Macron’s frustration after his first initiative, which did not bear fruit, and his belated realization that Lebanon is subject to regional balances and is not unilateral.
Hezbollah estimates
In this context, many in Beirut question Hezbollah’s position, because activating Riyadh’s influence poses a challenge to its influence with Iran, especially after Saudi Arabia and France expressed their concern over the development of the Iranian nuclear program.
Boumonsef finds that there is monitoring of Hezbollah’s ability to go for a policy of disassociation before the parliamentary elections in return for anticipating any major regional development that might turn the data upside down.
For his part, Fadlallah believes that Washington may have given Paris an opportunity to reactivate its role in Lebanon before the elections, and that Saudi Arabia will be in the same direction.
He recalled that a large Lebanese group – headed by Hezbollah – objects to the Saudi performance, specifically after the detention of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Riyadh in 2017.
turn a blind eye
Fadlallah described the terms of the joint statement as unimportant to Hezbollah, and said that “the party reads regional developments and negotiations carefully, does not allow its provocation, and turns a blind eye to policies that will not advance and delay it.”
On the other hand, Boumansef doubted Lebanon’s ability to abide by the Saudi-French conditions, but Hezbollah – in her opinion – received a major Gulf blow, and felt that the burden was heavy.
Fadlallah expected that Hezbollah would anticipate the next Saudi steps, and put forward two possibilities, the first: if Riyadh positively accepted Lebanon, it might embarrass it, and it would stop escalation, and the second: if it insisted on a high ceiling of conditions and demanded more concessions, its reaction might be different, and the country would open to Contrasting possibilities, because Saudi Arabia – in his opinion – will not make a quick positive development towards Lebanon without a heavy price.
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