Study: Covid-19 mortality was 1.4pc in outbreak epicentre

Study: Covid-19 mortality was 1.4pc in outbreak epicentre
Study: Covid-19 mortality was 1.4pc in outbreak epicentre

Hello and welcome to the details of Study: Covid-19 mortality was 1.4pc in outbreak epicentre and now with the details

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Medical workers in protective suits disinfect an intensive care unit (ICU) ward of Union Jiangbei Hospital in Wuhan, the epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak, Hubei province, China March 12, 2020. — China Daily pic via Reuters

PARIS, March 19 — The novel coronavirus proved deadly in 1.4 per centof all people infected in the Chinese outbreak city of Wuhan, far lower than global estimates of the killer pandemic, researchers said today.

Covid-19 cases are soaring, with more than 200,000 confirmed since cases emerged in Wuhan late last year.

The World Health Organisation said this month that Covid-19 proves deadly in 3.4 per cent of confirmed cases.

But with limited testing capacity and confirmed cases likely to be towards the severe end of the spectrum, several experts have suggested the true mortality rate may be significantly lower.

A team of researchers in China has now reviewed eight separate public and private data sources on Covid-19 in Wuhan, and believe they have come up with a more accurate mortality estimate.

These include: data on confirmed cases with no contact with the market where the outbreak originated; confirmed air passenger cases; age distribution of confirmed cases and deaths; and time between onset and death.

They found that the probability of dying after developing Covid-19 symptoms was 1.4 per cent.

“Estimation of true case numbers — necessary to determine the severity per case — is challenging in the setting of an overwhelmed healthcare system that cannot ascertain cases effectively,” said the study, published in Nature Medicine.

As of February 29, mainland China had 79,394 confirmed Covid-19 cases and 2,838 deaths — meaning 3.54 per cent of patients diagnosed with the disease later died.

But the authors said that milder cases presenting few or no symptoms are missing from data sets, and suggested their estimates were a better way to view the virus and the problem it poses.

“The number of severe outcomes or deaths in the population is most strongly dependent on how ill an infected person is likely to become, and this question should be the focus of attention,” they wrote.

Age matters

The analysis, led by Joseph Wu, a renowned epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, also examined the likelihood of death across age ranges.

Compared with those aged 30-59 years, those above 59 were roughly 5.1 times more likely to die after infection.

Those under 30 were 60 per cent less likely to die than the median age group.

The authors concluded that the risk of contracting a moderate to severe infection increased roughly four per cent per year among adults aged 30-60 years.

Chinese authorities undertook a near-total lockdown of Wuhan and the surrounding province of Hubei, confining more than 11 million people to their homes for weeks.

They also constructed a new hospital in the city to deal with Covid-19 case loads.

Yesterday, China reported just one new domestic case, compared to over 1,000 per day at the epidemic’s peak.

Wu said his estimates should help inform policymakers at a time when several European countries are undergoing lock downs.

“Estimates of both the observed and unobserved infections are essential for informing the development and evaluation of public health strategies, which need to be traded off against economic, social and personal freedom costs,” he wrote. — AFP

These were the details of the news Study: Covid-19 mortality was 1.4pc in outbreak epicentre for this day. We hope that we have succeeded by giving you the full details and information. To follow all our news, you can subscribe to the alerts system or to one of our different systems to provide you with all that is new.

It is also worth noting that the original news has been published and is available at Malay Mail and the editorial team at AlKhaleej Today has confirmed it and it has been modified, and it may have been completely transferred or quoted from it and you can read and follow this news from its main source.

PREV All US states reject Trump’s allegations of electoral fraud
NEXT A petition of elected officials and personalities for a “Christmas without...