Russians to vote in first parliamentary elections since Ukraine invasion

Hind Al Soulia - Riyadh - MOSCOW — Russians are set to go to the polls to elect a new lower house of parliament in a vote seen by the Kremlin as a barometer of public opinion on the war with Ukraine, which is dragging through its fifth year.

There’s little doubt about what will be the broad outcome of the Sept. 18-20 vote as the Kremlin maintains tight control over the election campaign. The ruling United Russia party, which presents itself as the party of Putin, faces no realistic prospect of losing the majority it has held in the State Duma for 23 years.

Some Russians have grown weary of economic stagnation and intensifying Ukrainian retaliatory attacks and there is fear in some quarters that Putin could order a mass call-up of new soldiers after the election.

The parliamentary vote will be the first since President Vladimir Putin ordered full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and only the second nationwide poll after a presidential contest that re-elected him in 2024.

Voting is also due to take place in parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia’s army.

The war has killed hundreds of thousands, brought huge censorship at home, devastated eastern Ukraine and seen Moscow hit with unprecedented Western sanctions.

With Moscow having banned criticism of the war, no real opposition parties will be on the ballot paper and Putin’s ruling United Russia party is assured to scoop a majority of seats in the State Duma.

A European diplomat told AFP that while the election was “quite a sham”, it was a “ritual the Kremlin considers essential”, and it would be striving to “ensure a high turnout”.

Even if the results are “predefined”, voting still matters, exiled Russian political scientist Nikolai Petrov said.

“Just like at the time of the Soviet Union, elections should demonstrate loyalty of citizens,” he told AFP.

For Putin -- in power for 26 years -- it is important to “demonstrate to elites that he is still supported, still trusted by ordinary people”, Petrov said.

Half of the 450 seats up for grabs will be decided by a nationwide vote for party blocs, with the other half allocated to single-member districts across the country.

Only parties that support Putin and the war have been permitted to stand on the national ballot: the ruling United Russia party, the Communist Party, A Just Russia, nationalist LDPR and New People.

Russia’s sole anti-war party still active inside the country, Yabloko, was barred from standing.

“It’s a choice without a choice,” 18-year-old Yevdokia told AFP on the streets of Moscow.

She had planned to vote for Yabloko, which called for an end to fighting in Ukraine, but will now go for New People.

Authorities have used the backdrop of the war to ramp up repression to levels unseen since the Soviet Union.

All of Putin’s top opponents are in jail, exile, or dead -- like his main challenger Alexei Navalny, who died in a Russian prison in 2024.

While Russia’s parliament has seen its powers hugely reduced under Putin, legislative elections have previously been sources of tension.

In 2011, widespread fraud and the return of Putin to the Kremlin from the role of prime minister led to Russia’s largest protests since the end of the USSR.

In Moscow, there are few signs that an election will even take place this year.

Campaign posters are few and far between, save for generic ones from the authorities urging people to participate -- featuring the slogan, “Your voice is Russia’s strength”.

The vote will serve as a barometer of feelings on a war that has killed hundreds of thousands and undermined the daily lives of Russian, even those living thousands of kilometres from the front.

In recent months Kyiv has stepped up its long-range strikes on Russia -- cast as fair retribution for Moscow’s own barrages -- causing fuel shortages, billions of rubles in damage and killing civilians.

Amid persistent rumours, Putin himself has been forced to deny Moscow plans a new round of mobilisation -- similar to the unpopular 2022 call-up of 300,000 reservists -- after the vote.

Kremlin critics, Kyiv and some Western countries have accused him of planning just that.

Russian expert Tatiana Stanovaya -- of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre that is banned by Moscow -- believed a call-up is unlikely.

“They made so much effort to convince Russians not worry about it... I would be very, very surprised if it happens.”

In his inevitable victory, Putin would instead see “confirmation of his legitimacy,” she said — “legitimacy of his war”.