Why a Manchester by-election has the whole UK watching and what it means for Starmer

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham delivers a speech on apprenticeships ahead of the June 18 Makerfield by-election in Wigan, Britain on June 13, 2026. — Reuters pic

LONDON, June 17 — Britain holds a special vote on Thursday that is expected to set in motion an attempt to oust Labour leader Keir Starmer as prime minister.

Below is everything you need to know about what UK media is calling “the most consequential by-election” in British political history.

What is happening?

In short, it is a poll to elect a member of parliament to represent the Makerfield constituency near Manchester in north-west England, but in reality, it is so much more.

Long-time Starmer critic Andy Burnham, a popular metro mayor, is looking to win the seat so he can run for the Labour leadership, and premiership.

If Burnham loses, then his ambitions are effectively dead in the water and the unpopular Starmer, who has been clinging onto power for weeks, earns another temporary reprieve.

Starmer’s immediate future, therefore, rests in the hands of roughly 76,000 people who are eligible to vote in the constituency.

Polling stations will open at 7:00 am (0600 GMT) and close at 10:00 pm. A result is due in the early hours of Friday.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer attends a press conference to announce government action to protect children online at Downing Street in London on June 15, 2026. — AFP pic

Why is it happening?

By-elections usually occur when an MP has been forced to quit over a scandal, or they have died.

But Thursday’s vote was triggered after incumbent Josh Simons announced he would stand down so that Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, could try to become an MP and use that to launch his bid to oust Starmer.

Veteran politician Burnham, 56, is popular on Labour’s so-called soft-left wing.

He has been an outspoken critic of Starmer, who has tried to govern more from the centre since ousting the Conservatives in July 2024, but whose time in office has been plagued by policy U-turns.

A scandal over his appointment of ex-Jeffrey Epstein associate Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington contributed to dire local and regional election results for Labour last month.

Under Labour party rules, it is impossible for someone outside parliament to become leader, hence why Burnham, who was an MP between 2001 and 2017, wants back in.

Will Burnham triumph?

Polls predict that Burnham should win, although it is expected to be a tight contest with the hard-right Reform UK party, whose candidate is local plumber Robert Kenyon.

While Labour is typically a safe Labour seat, Simons secured a majority of just over 5,300 at the 2024 general election.

Reform, led by anti-immigrant firebrand Nigel Farage, also won every council ward in the area during last month’s council polls.

But Burnham’s personal popularity is expected to see him through, plus Kenyon has been dogged by offensive remarks he previously made on social media, including about women.

Seventy-year-old Susan Smith told AFP in the town of Hindley that she will vote for Burnham.

“He’s done a lot of good work for the community,” said the charity shop manager.

But Simon, 32, who asked not to give his full name, said he plans to vote Reform, mainly because of the hot-button immigration issue.

“Labour, Tories, all of them have had a chance. Let the rest of them have a chance,” he told AFP.

Restore Britain, backed by Elon Musk and which is even further right of Reform, could play a deciding factor.

A More in Common poll for the Sunday Times predicted Restore will win an eight per cent vote share, greater than the difference between the 45 per cent expected for Burnham and 40 per cent tipped for Kenyon.

Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe walks the streets to campaign for the party’s candidate ahead of the Makerfield by-election on June 18, west of Manchester, north-west England on June 13, 2026. — AFP pic

What next?

Multiple reports have suggested Burnham could launch a leadership bid quickly if he is victorious, although others have speculated he could wait until Labour’s annual conference in September.

He would need the support of 81 of Labour’s 402 MPs to trigger a contest, the outcome of which would be decided by Labour Party members, not just lawmakers.

Others may also throw their hat into the ring, including the former health minister Wes Streeting and ex-defence minister John Healey, who had been considered loyal to Starmer until his shock resignation last week.

A YouGov poll last month suggested Burnham would defeat Starmer.

The prime minister warned Monday that a contest would plunge the country “into chaos”, repeating that he would stand and fight any challenge.

Unnamed allies of Burnham quoted in newspapers have expressed hope that Starmer could instead be persuaded by his ministers to resign or lay out a timetable for his departure. — AFP