‘They won’t let us govern’: Winning not enough as Thailand’s most popular party

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - A People's Party supporter holds signs with party leader and prime ministerial candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut (right) and former Thai prime ministerial candidate and ex Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat (left) at a People's Party rally ahead of the general election in Bangkok on January 25, 2026. Thousands of young orange-clad supporters cheered the rallies of Thailand's most popular political party ahead of elections on February 8, but few expect it to take power. — AFP pic

BANGKOK, Feb 3 — Thousands of young orange-clad supporters cheered the rallies of Thailand’s most popular political party ahead of elections this weekend, but few expect it to take power.

While the People’s Party is far ahead in the polls, promising to tackle corruption and reform Thailand’s strict royal insult laws, even some of the party’s lawmakers have their doubts.

“They will not let us become the government or come into power easily,” 31-year-old firebrand Rukchanok Srinork told AFP.

“It is not a surprise that they will do everything to block us.”

Dubbed “Ice Storm” by Thai media, Rukchanok is an inspirational figure for many young Thai voters who want to see change.

People’s Party MP Rukchanok Srinork speaks during a campaign rally ahead of the general election, in Bangkok on January 25, 2026. — AFP pic

The People’s Party is the latest incarnation of the organisation that won the last election, in 2023, pledging to relax lese-majeste laws, push back military influence and break up powerful business monopolies.

It struck a coalition deal with second-placed Pheu Thai — the grouping of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, now in prison — only for military-appointed senators to reject its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, as prime minister.

The constitutional court later banned Pita from politics for 10 years for campaigning to change the lese-majeste legislation, known as Section 112, and dissolved the party.

Refounded and renamed, the People’s Party was around 11 per cent ahead of its nearest rival, the ruling Bhumjaithai, in the last survey by respected pollster NIDA before a pre-election cut-off.

Half of 18- to 35-year-olds support the party, it found.

The party has half a million TikTok followers, its bright and playful daily content far outpacing Bhumjaithai’s 38,000.

“I feel bored with the old style of politics,” said Napat Sinakasa, a 23-year-old software developer and second-time voter.

“I wish new politicians who’ve never had the chance to run the country have the chance to.”

Mass protests 

But elite and conservative forces retain their grip on the Thai establishment, and most analysts doubt the People’s Party will manage to form a government, even if it emerges with the most seats.

The party’s victory in May 2023 — when it was known as Move Forward — came on a record turnout of 75 per cent.

Its dissolution sparked months of youth-led demonstrations in Bangkok, with protesters hurling unprecedented public criticisms of the monarchy and demanding transparency and reform.

Protest leaders were later convicted under Section 112.

Thailand's prime minister and Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul arrives for campaigning ahead of the general election, at Lumpini park in Bangkok on January 30, 2026. — AFP pic

Analysts expect incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai to come second this time and form a coalition with probable third-placed Pheu Thai.

Many young voters say that would dishearten them.

“I would probably be angry... not angry at the party, but angry at the rules or the people who caused it — those who might have made secret deals behind the scenes,” said Patcharee Phadungsuksira, 26.

“I do feel a bit discouraged sometimes, but I still believe that one day it will be our turn,” she added.

Don’t stop believing 

The military-appointed senators who blocked the party last time are no longer in parliament, and the vote is now by the lower house only.

But two of the three People’s Party prime ministerial candidates have accusations hanging over them for supporting changes to the lese-majeste law, which could see them also banned from politics.

Voters, especially the younger generation, still “feel upset” about the fate of Move Forward, said political scientist Punchada Sirivunnabood, of Mahidol University.

There is no guarantee the People’s Party will secure power even if it wins the popular vote, she said.

“So that’s why there’s a question: Should we really vote for this party? Because if we vote for them and they cannot form the government... we’re going to lose our votes.”

But on the campaign trail, its top prime ministerial nominee, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, hoped that this time there would be “no lawfare to destroy us”.

“People still believe in their power,” he told AFP, between pauses to snap selfies with young supporters, despite the party having been dissolved “many times before”.

“We cannot stop believing, we cannot stop fighting.” — AFP