China travel alert wipes out Japan trips, with RM5b tourism hit looming

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - Chinese tourists stand near the Sensoji temple, a popular sightseeing spot at the Asakusa district in Tokyo — a familiar sight now threatened by a wave of cancellations from China. — Reuters pic

By Malay Mail

Friday, 21 Nov 2025 12:16 PM MYT

TOKYO, Nov 21 — Japan is staring at a potential US$1.2 billion (RM5 billion) blow to its tourism receipts as Chinese travellers scrap holiday plans in the wake of a worsening diplomatic row, Bloomberg reported.

About 30 per cent of the 1.44 million China-to-Japan trips planned through December have already been cancelled after Beijing urged citizens to avoid travel to its neighbour, according to travel-data firm China Trading Desk.

Chief executive Subramania Bhatt said roughly 70 per cent of the drop stems from immediate departures being cancelled or postponed, while new bookings have dried up completely. 

His team estimates that the wave of cancellations has already stripped at least US$500 million from expected tourist spending — a figure that could more than double by the end of 2025.

Chinese tourists, he noted, typically spend over US$900 million a month in Japan. 

“We’re seeing a very sharp shock to Japan demand out of China,” Bhatt told Bloomberg. 

“The current notice explicitly discouraging trips to Japan is a noticeably stronger stance than we have seen in recent years.”

The abrupt chill comes at a fragile moment for Japan’s economy. Beijing’s travel warning followed comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that linked a potential Taiwan conflict with the possibility of deploying Japanese troops — remarks that angered China and prompted retaliation, including a suspension of seafood imports. 

Tourism, a key pillar of Japan’s post-pandemic recovery, is now feeling the strain.

Travel agents say the advice to steer clear of Japan is being taken seriously. 

Group and package tours — a mainstay of outbound Chinese travel — make up as much as half of the lost bookings, while individual leisure trips account for another 22 per cent. 

Major Chinese carriers and Cathay Pacific have waived cancellation fees on Japan routes, fuelling further withdrawals.

Bloomberg reported that at least two state-owned Chinese travel agencies have cancelled group bookings made months earlier to shield themselves from policy risks and shifting public sentiment.

The downturn also reverses what had been a buoyant recovery. Before Beijing’s warning, China-Japan bookings through 2025 were running around 25 per cent above last year’s levels. They are now trailing behind 2024.

Japan’s most popular gateways — Tokyo and Osaka — are taking the heaviest hit, with cancellations concentrated on flights from Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou.

The impact reaches beyond hotels and tour operators. Chinese visitors make up around a quarter of Japan’s annual arrivals and accounted for 27 per cent of inbound spending between July and September, government data shows. 

A weak yen has supercharged luxury consumption, with Chinese shoppers driving high-end demand well above pre-pandemic levels.

But luxury spending could fall by as much as US$600 million next year if the slump persists, according to China Trading Desk.

The longer the diplomatic freeze continues, the steeper the toll could be. Bhatt warned that if mainland Chinese visitors continue to stay away through 2026, Japan could face cumulative losses of up to US$9 billion.

Still, he noted one small sign of optimism: while year-end travel plans are being abandoned, bookings for January remain stable. 

“That suggests many travellers still hope the situation will ease by then,” he said.