Clock ticking: Debt fears, Medicaid cuts stall Trump’s US$2.8t ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ ahead of July 4 deadline

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - A view of an agenda with the words ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ printed on it, on the day of a House Rules Committee’s hearing on US President Donald Trump’s plan for extensive tax cuts, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C. May 21, 2025. — Reuters pic

WASHINGTON, June 23 — US President Donald Trump and his allies in the Senate face a political free-for-all over passage of his sweeping tax-cut and spending legislation, which Republican congressional leaders hope to enact in coming days despite growing resistance from different party factions.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, House Speaker Mike Johnson and administration officials are pressing Republican lawmakers to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill Act so Trump can sign it into law before the July 4 US Independence Day holiday.

But hardline Republicans have redoubled their push for additional spending cuts after an official forecast that the bill would add at least US$2.8 trillion (RM12 trillion) to the US$36.2 trillion US debt. Other lawmakers, looking to minimise the impact of cuts on social programmes including Medicaid, have also voiced adamant opposition to the bill’s language.

Republicans control the Senate by a 53-47 majority and the House by 220-212. One Republican from each chamber has opposed the legislation from the beginning due to the debt.

Thune aims to begin Senate action by the middle of this week and complete passage by the weekend, sending the bill back to the House for final approval.

Trump is expected to turn up the heat on senators this week, according to Republican lawmakers who view him as “the closer.”

“Great unity in the Republican Party, perhaps unity like we have never seen before. Now let’s get the Great, Big, Beautiful Bill done,” Trump said in a social media post on Sunday.

Lawmakers are still waiting for the Senate parliamentarian, the chamber’s nonpartisan gatekeeper, to decide whether the legislation qualifies for the privileged status needed to circumvent Democrats and the 60-vote Senate filibuster and pass it with only 51 votes.

“The Senate Republican bill is, simply put, bigger cuts, bigger betrayal,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said.

“It makes even deeper cuts to healthcare. It destroys American clean energy. It raises costs on working and middle-class families. And it rewards those at the very top,” he said.

Pushback

Some Republicans are pushing back on Thune’s schedule in hopes of gaining more time to negotiate bigger savings.

“There’s no way. There’s no way,” Senator Ron Johnson, a leading fiscal hawk who wants to cut federal spending back to pre-Covid pandemic levels, said when asked if he could support the bill this week.

The Wisconsin Republican said he is coordinating with fellow hardline Senators Mike Lee and Rick Scott, who want to glean additional savings from green tax credits and the Medicaid healthcare programme for lower-income Americans, respectively.

“If we had all the money in the world, why would you make a change? We don’t. We’re running US$2 trillion deficits,” Scott told reporters.

The legislation has yet to pass muster with the Senate parliamentarian, a nonpartisan referee who has said Republican efforts to restrict food assistance, curtail the ability of judges to block government policies, slash funding for financial watchdogs and reverse Biden vehicle policy, violate budgetary rules.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said last week the House version of the bill could lead to a US$2.8 trillion increase in the federal deficit over the next decade.

The deficit hike would reach a total of US$3.4 trillion, if the cost of rising interest payments due to increased borrowing needs were included, according to the agency, which took into account the bill’s potential impact on economic activity.

The report contradicted Republican claims that tax cuts would lead to buoyant economic growth and pay for themselves by generating higher revenues from increased business activity.

In a Senate floor speech last week, Thune cited a White House Council of Economic Advisers projection the legislation would increase federal revenue by US$4.1 trillion, saying it would more than offset the CBO’s deficit estimate.

Medicaid hit

A revised Senate version of the legislation would reduce Medicaid provider taxes from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent by 2031 in states that expanded the programme to able-bodied recipients under the Affordable Care Act. That provision is opposed by several Senate Republicans who say it would undercut funding for rural hospitals.

“They cannot defund rural hospitals,” said Senator Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican who has positioned himself in the debate as a champion of Medicaid.

But Republicans signaled the time for negotiations would soon come to an end and predicted that wavering members would ultimately support the legislation.

“Some people are going to have to settle for a ham and egg sandwich without the ham. That’s just the way it is,” said Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. — Reuters