Trump’s high-stakes week takes him to three Gulf countries

Hind Al Soulia - Riyadh - ABU DHABI — Three energy-rich Gulf Arab nations are racing to turn their influence over Donald Trump into tangible gains with the president set to visit next week.

They have built personal ties with the president and collectively pledged trillions in US investments while casting themselves as key intermediaries in conflicts Trump wants to resolve, from Gaza to Ukraine and Iran.

Now, they’re being rewarded with the privilege of hosting Trump’s first state visit of his second term. The US president is set to land in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, followed by visits to Qatar and then the United Arab Emirates that stretch until May 16.

Given Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, the three states have much to offer.

“In Trump’s book, the Gulf states tick all the right boxes,” Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told CNN. They “pledge to invest trillions in the US economy and spend colossal amounts on US weapons systems.”

Behind this carefully crafted strategy of wooing Trump is a desire from Gulf states to solidify and formalize their positions as the US’ indispensable security and economic partners, and extract as much benefit for themselves as they can.

US-Gulf relations have improved significantly since Trump returned to office. Frustrated at the perceived lack of US interest in their needs under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had sought to diversify their military, technological and economic ties. With Trump in office, they see what one Gulf official called a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to achieve his country’s objectives.

From their perspective, now is the time to cement ties with Washington, and even “secure greater privileges in their relationship with the world’s most powerful nation,” Ebtesam AlKetbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank in Abu Dhabi, said.

Each of the three nations Trump is visiting has its own list of priorities.

Sealing a US-Saudi security pact

“Security, security and security” is what Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states seek most from Trump’s visit, said Ali Shihabi, an author and commentator on the politics and economics of Saudi Arabia.

“Gulf States are looking for reassurance of the US security commitment to the Gulf’s stability,” Shihabi told CNN. “Trump has many priorities and has been known to lose interest quickly ... and they want to keep him engaged.”

Last year, the US and Saudi Arabia came close to finalizing a landmark defense and trade pact – but the deal stalled over Saudi insistence that Israel commit to a path toward Palestinian statehood.

Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that Trump is likely to move ahead with major deals regardless of normalization, which he said is “dead.”

Riyadh is also seeking US cooperation to develop a civil nuclear program, but that has been held up over its insistence on enriching uranium domestically – raising concerns in the US and Israel over nuclear weapons proliferation. Uranium, when enriched to high levels, can be used to produce nuclear weapons.

White House backing for a Saudi nuclear program could see American firms win lucrative contracts.

Riyadh appears to be framing its relationship with the US as a win-win. In March, Trump said he’d go to Saudi Arabia if it invests $1 trillion in the US. “They’ve agreed to do that, so I’m going to be going there,” he said.

While Saudi Arabia didn’t confirm that figure, it announced plans in January to expand trade and investment with the US by $600 billion over four years, with potential for more.

But for Riyadh to diversify away from oil, it still needs to sell oil – at a healthy profit – to fund that transition. Recent price drops, driven in part by Trump’s tariffs, threaten to undermine those ambitions. Trump has made clear he wants oil prices lower, putting him at odds with Saudi Arabia’s need for high revenues to finance its economic transformation.

UAE’s quest for AI dominance

Perhaps more than any other Gulf state, the UAE sees investment as central to its strategy for deepening ties with the US and securing returns – and it has money to back it up. Among the world’s richest countries per capita, it has pledged trillions in US investments. Abu Dhabi has even branded itself “the capital of capital.”

“Expanding trade and investment is a way to reinforce this strategic partnership,” AlKetbi said. “The US remains a critical security guarantor for the Gulf region, while also offering a dynamic economy full of opportunities and capabilities that align with the long-term Gulf development plans.”

In March, the UAE announced a $1.4 trillion investment plan over 10 years focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy. Its existing US investments already total $1 trillion, according to its embassy in Washington.

“The UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become a significant contributor in AI and advanced technology,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told CNN. “The commitment to invest $1.4 trillion... aligns with the UAE’s goal to diversify its economy away from its over reliance on hydrocarbons to ensure prosperity for the country in the future.”

But it won’t be easy for Abu Dhabi to achieve its stated goal of becoming a global leader in AI by 2031 without US microchips.

During the final days of former President Joe Biden’s administration, the US tightened curbs on AI exports to keep advanced technology out of the hands of foreign adversaries like China, which were meant to take effect on May 15. The UAE has been one of the countries facing restrictions and may expect them to be lifted during Trump’s trip.

On Thursday, the US announced that Trump will rescind a set of the Biden-era curbs.

Qatar’s global diplomacy

Qatar is the Gulf Arab nation with the most formalized security ties with the US. It hosts the biggest US military installation in the Middle East, which the State Department describes as “indispensable” for US military operations in the region.

Last year, the US quietly reached an agreement that extends its military presence at the sprawling base in Qatar for another 10 years. It also amended a 1992 defense cooperation agreement with the US, which is meant to further strengthen their security partnership.

In 2022, the Biden administration also designated Qatar as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a title granted to close friends that have strategic working relationships with the US military.

Qatar has been a key mediator in a number of conflicts – from the war in Gaza to Afghanistan. Experts say it is part of an effort to remain relevant in the eyes of Washington.

“The Gulf states view conflict mediation as a source of influence and prestige,” Alhasan told CNN. “They have managed to use their role as mediators to position themselves as indispensable partners for Trump’s political agenda.”

Doha also maintains close ties with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has been on a quest to relieve his country of years-long sanctions by the West.

Syria is expected to be a key issue that Qatar will raise with Trump when he visits, an official with knowledge of the matter told CNN Thursday. Doha is pushing the Trump administration to lift sanctions on Syria under the Caesar Act, the official said, adding that Qatar is wary about providing any financial support to Syria without Washington’s blessing.

Trump’s visit is ultimately about what he can get out of the three Gulf states, experts said, adding that each of the three nations is anticipating a set of new deals that will benefit both parties.

“He’s coming here because he believes it is in the interest of the US economy, perhaps his interest and those around him, to have those deals here with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar,” Maksad said. “So expect big announcements.” — CNN