German govt in crisis: What comes next for Scholz after sacking finance minister?

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses a press conference at the Chancellery in Berlin after a coalition committe meeting on November 6, 2024. Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz yesterday fired his Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Scholz's spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told AFP. — AFP pic

BERLIN, Nov 7 — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked his rebellious finance minister Christian Lindner yesterday, ending the three-party coalition and leaving the government on the brink of collapse.

Scholz has called a confidence vote for January 15, followed by elections likely in March, but critics are already questioning whether he can continue to govern for that long.

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner addresses a press conference at the Reichstag building which houses Germany's lower house of parliament (Bundestag) in Berlin after a coalition committee meeting on November 6, 2024. — AFP pic

What happened?

Germany has been governed since 2021 by Scholz’s centre-left SPD in a coalition with the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP).

The government — nicknamed the ‘traffic light’ coalition after the colours of the three parties — took office with lofty promises of change and modernisation after 16 years of Angela Merkel.

But the coalition has long been plagued by bitter infighting as the parties have disagreed on a huge range of issues such as budget policy, immigration, climate and how to revive the ailing economy.

All of that discord finally reached a critical point on Wednesday after crunch talks at the chancellery that ended in the surprise sacking of Lindner.

Traffic lights out

Scholz plans to carry on ruling as head of a minority government formed of his SPD and the Greens, without Lindner’s FDP.

Robert Habeck, Scholz’s vice chancellor and the de facto leader of the Greens, supports this scenario.

“We will use this time to show unity with the remaining government,” he said, adding bravely that the crisis had created “a new impetus” for the government.

Without the FDP, the government will be down 91 MPs. The SPD has 207 seats and the Greens 117, leaving them short of the 367 votes needed for a majority.

A lectern is seen outside the FDP (Free Democrats) party parliamentary group offices at the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament in Berlin, on November 7, 2024. — AFP pic

Minority government

A minority government would no longer be able to pass any legislation through parliament on its own and would need the support of opposition parties.

Scholz said yesterday that he wanted to seek prompt talks with Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative CDU-CSU alliance, the biggest opposition party.

The chancellor said he wanted to seek “constructive cooperation on issues that are crucial for our country”, especially the “rapid strengthening of our economy and our defence”.

However, the range of issues on which Merz’s party is likely to offer any support to Scholz’s government is very narrow.

Pressing issues

The crisis could hardly have come at a worse time, on the same day as Donald Trump was re-elected to the White House and with several pressing issues on the domestic political agenda.

With Trump expected to reduce US support for Ukraine, the pressure will be on Europe — and especially Germany as Kyiv’s second-biggest backer — to step up its support in the coming months.

At home, Germany is battling sluggish growth and a deep crisis in its once-revered car industry.

Scholz has already named a list of urgent domestic legislation he wishes to get passed through parliament before the end of the year.

This includes tax and pension reforms as well as “immediate measures for our industry”, Scholz said.

Election in March

According to the German constitution, a chancellor can call for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag lower house of parliament to confirm whether they still have the support of parliament.

If the chancellor fails to win a majority, they can then ask the president to dissolve parliament within 21 days.

Elections must then be held within 60 days.

If the vote of confidence is held on January 15 as Scholz plans, the poll would then take place by late March — six months earlier than Germany’s next scheduled election on September 28, 2025.

Pressure to act

But Scholz is already facing calls from the CDU-CSU alliance to hold a confidence vote immediately.

“There must be no tactical delays,” said Markus Soeder, the powerful and outspoken leader of the conservatives in the southern state of Bavaria.

“The confidence question must be put immediately and not next year.”

This would allow new elections to be held as early as January. — AFP