Understanding the reports: What we know about North Korean troops reportedly joining Russia’s war in Ukraine

Nevin Al Sukari - Sana'a - A woman walks past a red star installation, with the Kursk regional administration building seen in distance, in Kursk October 17, 2024. — AFP pic

SEOUL, Oct 26 — The first units of North Korean troops trained in Russia have been deployed in the Kursk region, a Russian border area where Ukrainian forces staged a major incursion in August, Ukraine’s military intelligence service said this week.

The United States joined Ukraine and South Korea to accuse North Korea of dispatching the troops, estimated to number in the thousands, to aid Russia in the war in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has previously dismissed reports about the North’s troop deployment as “fake news”. But Russian president Vladimir Putin on Thursday did not deny that North Korean troops were currently in Russia and said that it was Moscow’s business how to implement a partnership treaty with Pyongyang.

Here is what we know so far:

A man crosses a street in Kursk on October 17, 2024. — AFP pic

What are the reports?

The Ukrainian intelligence agency said a total of around 12,000 North Korean troops, including 500 officers and three generals, were already in Russia, and training was taking place on five military bases.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said North Korea had previously deployed officers in Russian-occupied territory within Ukraine.

“I believe they sent officers first to assess the situation before deploying troops,” Zelenskiy told reporters.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) said it had tracked around 3,000 troops, including special forces, shipped by Russian naval vessels to the country’s Far East for training and acclimatising at military bases there, probably to be deployed for combat in the war.

The South also said it had used AI facial recognition technology to identify a delegation of dozens of North Korean officers visiting frontline areas in Ukraine, to give guidance on North Korea-made KN-23 ballistic missiles fired at targets there.

The delegation included a key figure in the North’s missile development, identified by analysts at Seoul-based NK PRO as Ri Song-jin, glimpsed in photographs last year while accompanying leader Kim Jong-un to factories that turn out missiles.

The troops have been supplied with Russian military uniforms, weapons and false identification documents ahead of being deployed for combat, it said.

A man walks past a newspaper displayed on a street for the public in Seoul on October 21, 2024, with coverage on North Korea’s decision to deploy thousands of soldiers to Ukraine’s front lines and a photo (centre) of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin toasting at a banquet in Pyongyang earlier this year. — AFP pic

Why would North Korea help Russia?

Putin has said a treaty he signed with Kim Jong-un during a visit to Pyongyang in June included a mutual assistance clause for each side to help the other repel external aggression.

Analysts say North Korea could benefit from providing weapons and troops by gaining experience and insight from operating on a battlefield.

Pyongyang, heavily sanctioned for its nuclear weapons programme, also appears to be gaining major imports of oil and other products from Russia, according to foreign intelligence agencies and commercial satellite imagery examined by analysts.

A report by a think tank affiliated with South Korea’s NIS estimated that the cash-strapped North earned about US$540 million (RM2.3 billion) last year from arms sales to Russia.

This frame grab made from a handout UNTV video taken on October 21, 2024 and released by AFPTV on October 22, 2024, shows a North Korean representative speaking at a committee meeting during the UN General Assembly in New York. — Handout pic via AFP

What has the reaction been?

A North Korean representative to the United Nations in New York called the reports “groundless rumours.”

On Monday, South Korea said it had protested the deployment to Russia’s ambassador.

Seoul has also said it is considering phased countermeasures, including possible changes to its stance against directly providing weapons to Ukraine.

Germany and Austria summoned North Korea’s top envoys in their countries on Wednesday to register their concerns.

The leaders of Britain and Finland have said Russia’s use of North Korean troops would be a sign of desperation.

China’s foreign ministry said on Thursday it was not aware of North Korean troops being in Russia and it hoped “all parties will promote a de-escalation of the situation and commit themselves to a political solution” in Ukraine.

What challenges do North Korean troops present to Ukraine?

Russia has fired dozens of North Korea-made ballistic missiles and has received large numbers of artillery shells and anti-tank rockets, say South Korea, Ukraine, the United States and independent researchers.

Military analysts say there are questions on how Russia would incorporate North Korean troops on the ground, and that, like the weapons, an infusion of troops would be unlikely to be a game changer but could help prolong the conflict.

“Russia’s war zone has expanded significantly, and with Ukrainian forces making advances even into Russian territory, North Korean troops could play role in defending against such incursions,” said Kim Yong-hyun, of South Korea’s Dongguk University. “While North Korea’s involvement may not be decisive for Russia, it could still provide meaningful support.” — Reuters