Despite the fact that Joe Biden has taken the lead in Arizona, the battle has not been lost for Donald Trump. He can still get more votes in a state where many votes in the mail.
Arizona has been electing Republican presidents since 1952, with the exception of President Bill Clinton in 1996.
Now, however, it can turn around.
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) is in the lead with 49.6 percent of the vote over Donald Trump’s 48.7 percent.
That equates to 29,861 votes.
In several states, Trump led solidly on election night. That leadership has shrunk sharply since they began counting postal votes, and now Biden is well placed to become the next president of the United States.
But the percentage of postal votes going to Biden in Arizona is shrinking.
For despite President Donald Trump’s (R) repeated claims that postal votes are unreliable, Republicans in the state remain as before.
There, it has been quite common for everyone to use postal votes since 1992.
This is the status of Arizona now:
- There are still more than 173,000 votes in the state, according to CNN
- 92,000 of them are in Maricopa County, which is Arizona’s largest municipality and includes the city of Phoenix.
- It is expected that new figures will be announced on Saturday at 17.00 Norwegian time, and at 03.00 on Sunday night Norwegian time.
The times that are important now
During a meeting with the president in August, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) defended the use of postal votes.
– 78 percent of voters already vote through the mail in Arizona, but we have done so since 1992. So over several decades, we have established a system that works and can be trusted.
In 2016, approximately 61 per cent of the votes were cast as absentee votes or postal votes. Then Trump won with 48.1 percent of the vote, against Hillary Clinton’s 44.6 percent.
Also in 2012, over 60 percent of the votes were cast as postal votes, according to Pew Research.
Therefore, Republicans in the state have not let themselves be pissed off by Trump’s statements and have continued to vote through the mail.
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The voices level out
When the first votes were counted in Arizona, just over 50 percent of them went to Trump. These were probably attendance votes that were counted immediately.
It passed quickly when they started counting postal votes, where Biden received up to 55 percent of the votes.
When around 70 per cent of the votes were counted, however, the trend reversed. Biden received fewer votes, and Trump received more.
Share votes that went to Trump increased to just over 48 per cent, while Biden fell to 49.6 per cent. This is how it has looked for a while now.
It shows that many of the Republican Party in Arizona have done as before and chose to cast their vote through the mail, despite what Trump has said.
Trump is taking on Biden’s leadership in Arizona, which is one of the states where he has asked them to continue counting votes.
This is in contrast to Pennsylvania, where Trump’s leadership collapsed and disappeared in line with the counting of postal votes.
There are still over 170,000 votes left to count in Arizona. Even if Biden manages to win most of the 92,000 votes from the large, Democratic constituency of Maricopa County, it is still theoretically possible for Trump to take the lead. According to CNN, he has to take about 60 percent of the remaining votes to make it happen.
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Postal votes from both parties
The deadline to register to vote in Arizona was October 15, and postal votes had to arrive no later than election day to be counted.
The overview to The New York Times shows that approximately 3.9 million people were registered to vote in the state in the 2020 election year.
Of those, as many as 3.4 million asked for postal votes.
It is important to note that postal votes are not counted as cast votes until they have actually been cast.
It may therefore be the case that persons who have requested a postal vote rejected this and chose to vote by physical attendance instead.
Figures from the New York Times show that the distribution of those who asked to vote in the post is completely even between the two parties in the state.
36 percent of those who asked for a ballot in the mail stated that they were registered as Republicans, while 35 percent of them were Democrats.
The remaining 29 percent did not state party affiliation.
At the same time, the survey also shows that registered Republicans account for the majority of postal voting requests in other states where Trump won, such as South Dakota (D: 33 percent, R: 47 percent), Idaho (D: 19 percent, R: 50 percent), and Nebraska (D: 36 percent, R: 45 percent)
Some media outlets have already declared Biden the winner in Arizona. The question is whether it was not too early.
On Friday, Governor Doug Ducey thanked all Arizona voters for their patience. At the same time, he asked the media, TV channels and national opinion leaders to do the same.
– Avoid the temptation to declare a winner before our election authorities have done their job.
– We have seen dramatic changes in the results since Tuesday night. All of this underscores the importance of not concluding anything in Arizona until there are final results in all municipalities,
We’ve seen dramatic changes to races up and down the ballot since Tuesday night, including for President. All of this underlines the importance of not jumping to conclusions in the state of Arizona until there’s a final outcome in all counties. 2/3— Doug Ducey (@DougDucey) November 6, 2020
Published: 07.11.20 at 12:58
Updated: 07.11.20 at 15:09
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