COVID-19 infections are so increasing in the UK that if nothing can be done to reduce infections, scientists say the “reasonable worst case” could exceed 80,000 deaths.
The UK has registered an average of more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day over the past week, but the government has opposed a new national lockdown despite France and Germany reintroducing nationwide restrictions.
UK government scientists say the numbers are “going in the wrong direction”.
They say that the “reasonable worst case” planning scenario for the winter with 500 deaths per day and a number of more than 80,000 people is in danger of being exceeded if the infection numbers are not lowered. This emerges from papers released by government science advisors on Friday.
In the October 14 papers, advisors said the worst-case scenario could take three or four weeks if infections were cleared up. But they have continued to rise since then.
New COVID-19 cases in England increased by around 51,900 daily last week, an increase of nearly 50 percent from the previous week, according to an official poll on Friday.
This indicated that the incidence of new infections was still rising sharply and had not leveled off, unlike the previous week’s survey.
The “R” number was 1.1-1.3 versus 1.2-1.4, said the UK Government Office for Science. This means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 13 other people.
Although the drop in the “R” reproductive number showed that local measures had an effect, government scientists warn that the number of infections will not decrease unless it is brought below 1.
Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said Friday a national lockdown in England was not inevitable as he reaffirmed his confidence in the government’s localized approach.
The government has introduced a three-tier system of restrictions on local areas. On Friday, the government said West Yorkshire would enter the top tier of restrictions from Monday. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their own pandemic control policies.
Australian Associated Press
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