(Washington) With less than a week before the US presidential election, Democrat Joe Biden is in the lead, but the game is not done and Donald Trump can secure a new term if he wins, as in 2016, the two key states of Florida and Pennsylvania.
Posted on October 28, 2020 at 11:46 a.m.
Updated at 13:36
France Media Agency
The debates have taken place, more than 70 million voters have already voted in advance and the former vice-president, 77, leads the national polls.
But the Republican president, who at 74 is running for a second term, still has chances of winning on November 3 and the easiest way would be to win in Florida and Pennsylvania, two pivotal states that can switch sides. to the other at each ballot.
The former businessman knows the rules of the game: it is the big voters, rather than the popular vote, who make the election.
In 2016, he had garnered nearly three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton, but won a majority of 538 voters.
Each state has as many voters as elected to the House of Representatives (a number that depends on their population) and the Senate (two, fixed number in all states). With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, the entire electoral college is allocated to the winner of the popular vote in the state.
California, the most populous state, has 55 and Texas 38. Florida and New York each have 29 and Pennsylvania 20. The winner will be whoever reaches the simple majority of 270 voters.
According to polls and electoral experts, Donald Trump can rely on a base of 163 votes, in the states acquired by Republicans who voted for him four years ago.
Joe Biden seems to be able to count on at least 260 votes, thanks in part to Michigan and Wisconsin, two industrial northern states that had volunteered for the Republican in 2016.
« Plausible »
But the president can afford to lose those two states and still win on Tuesday, said Capri Cafaro, a former Democratic member of the Ohio Senate.
“If Donald Trump wins all the states he won the last time, except Wisconsin and Michigan, and he keeps Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida, he is the winner,” explains she told AFP.
Mr. Trump “reaches the 270” voters, adds the expert of the American University while making his calculations. “It’s plausible and very, very possible.”
“The key is Pennsylvania, because otherwise it will be difficult for Donald Trump to collect enough voters,” she said.
The Republican candidate got it right: he held three rallies in this state on Monday and stressed it to his supporters. “We win Pennsylvania, we win the game,” he said. And First Lady Melania Trump held her first solo campaign rally there on Tuesday.
Camp Biden also put in considerable resources to win by sending its trump card, ex-President Barack Obama, to Philadelphia for his first appearance in the campaign.
According to the site RealClearPolitics, which averages the polls, Joe Biden is seven points ahead at the national level. But the results are closer in several key states: Pennsylvania (+3.8), Arizona (+2.4), North Carolina (+0.7) and Florida (-0.4).
Mr. Trump is also struggling in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, states he largely won in 2016.
The president, who says he does not believe the polls, has yet campaigned in Iowa and Georgia. Another clue that he expects a close outcome: he has also moved to Nebraska and Maine, where only a great voter could be at stake.
The five votes for Nebraska and the four for Maine are split on a proportional basis between the winner of the popular ballot in the state and the winners of parliamentary elections that are held concurrently with the presidential election.
Mr. Trump should thus win the popular vote in Nebraska, that of Maine going to Joe Biden. But in every state there is an uphill battle for a seat in Congress, and the great voter who could make the difference.
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