According to a survey conducted by the Ipsos Institute for the Reuters agency between October 20 and 26 and released on Monday (26), Biden has 53% of voting intentions, against 44% for Donald Trump. The recorded advantage is two percentage points compared to the previous survey. The difference is that, now, a third of the interviewees have already voted.
Together with Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida, Wisconsin it is one of the states that can define the American presidential election that takes place in a week. However, this small state in the north of the country has an unpredictable profile: today, the region is reduced to large cities with a democratic majority, surrounded by rural areas with a republican tendency.
With his ten votes at the polling station, Wisconsin has been electing Democrats since 1984. But in 2016 his voters helped Trump win the White House, just one point ahead of Hillary Clinton.
According to experts, the health issue will be essential in this election. The state is one of the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and crisis management could make a difference at the polls.
“The choice of voters is based primarily on political affiliation and the trial of the four-year term. But a third, more important factor, is the population’s sentiment about coronavirus and Donald Trump’s management of the health crisis, ”explains Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy at Marquette University in Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s largest city.
Local milk producers suffer from Trump’s commercial disputes and residents have not yet forgotten the demonstrations after the death of African-American Jacob Blake in the city of Kenosha. However, “when it comes to determining voters’ choices, considerations about the economy or demonstrations such as those of the Black Lives Matter movement, which happened here, are not even half as important as the president’s management of the pandemic”Says Franklin, who also runs an independent research institute.
“We found that voters are more concerned with the virus, as the number of new cases has been on the rise over the past 45 days. After managing to keep the number of patients relatively low, they quadrupled. And deaths have tripled, ”recalls the professor.
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