Nine days before the polls, the American Election Project, a study center affiliated with the University of Florida, said that as of Sunday, there were more than 59 million voters who had cast their ballots.
In 2016, 57 million voters voted by early vote or by mail, according to the US Electoral Assistance Commission website.
This increase in the number of voters who chose to vote early is due to their fears of casting their votes in person in the midst of the emerging Corona virus crisis, or because of concern about the possibility of an electoral clash between Republican President Donald Trump, who is seeking to win a second term, and former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden.
Democrats pushing for early voting have made progress in the number of votes cast so far. But it is unclear whether this can be taken as an indication of what the final outcome of the poll might be.
The American newspaper “The Hill” believes that, despite his lagging behind Biden throughout the election campaign; His supporters, however, cite some factors that could trigger another “shock” similar to the one that secured his victory over Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election.
The newspaper says that the Democrats who were surprised by the 2016 result are not ruling out any such surprise. But if Trump manages to repeat the same scenario and reverse all expectations, then one of these reasons will likely be cited to explain his electoral achievement:
1- Trump’s game “on the field”
The Trump campaign is betting that traditional campaigns by knocking on the doors of voters’ homes will have a significant impact on the election trajectory, as the campaign claims to have more than 2.5 million volunteers on the field. In their contact with the media, Trump campaign aides often cite data they believe demonstrate their superiority on the ground.
2- Black voting
The low turnout of blacks in the 2016 election was one of the main reasons for Hillary Clinton’s loss. It was expected that the turnout of African Americans would drop once Obama – the country’s first black president – was out of the scene. Trump has been uncharacteristically focused by a Republican presidential candidate on polarizing blacks, and his campaign has been heavily promoted on broadcasts directed at African Americans.
3- Trump’s shy voter
One of the most popular theories among Trump allies is that he suffers from an unusual problem, which is that he has some kind of difficulty knowing his “social acceptance” accurately, as voters who support him hide their views from the pollsters.
But there is another theory confirmed by Bill Stephen, Trump’s campaign manager, and others, which is that Trump’s victory in 2016 was based on a large turnout in the less populous parts of some crucial states.
4- Voter registration
The numbers of registered voters in the hotly contested states are a cause for optimism in the Trump camp. A source in his campaign stated that during the last four months of each election cycle, “Democrats consistently outperformed Republicans registered in 2016; but we are now consistently over-enrolling.”
According to Trump campaign figures, the Democrats outperformed the registered Republicans by more than 78,000 people in Florida, for example, between August and November 2016, and since August of this year to date, the Republican Party has registered about 104,000 people in the state.
5- Latin Voices
President Trump is almost certain to lose the Hispanic vote nationwide; But the most important thing is that there are no data indicating that his situation with the Latins has diminished since 2016, despite the controversy raised by the immigration policies he adopted.
It is expected that the result of the American presidential race will be decided by 187 votes in the electoral college consisting of 538 votes. These votes are divided between 11 swing states and two constituencies, namely the states of Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and two constituencies in Nebraska and Maine.
While there are 187 contested votes, the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, is likely to receive 226 votes in states that usually vote or lean toward Democrats. Meanwhile, Republican President Donald Trump is expected to secure 125 votes. This means that Trump needs more than Biden to get more of the 187 swing votes.
This analysis, reported by The Wall Street Journal, is based on data from three nonpartisan organizations. A map showing potential outcome scenarios indicates that some states are critical for Trump to reach the 270 votes needed to secure an election victory.
The map indicates that Biden has 104 ways to win these states, while Trump has 64 ways, so the importance of Trump winning a greater number of votes in these previously mentioned crucial places becomes more important.
For example, the newspaper notes that Biden’s victory in Florida means that Trump will inevitably win another state such as Ohio, while if Biden loses Florida, he will have other opportunities to make up for this loss.
And the latest opinion polls for swing states have shown that Biden is slightly ahead of Trump in three important states in the southeast. Polls show Biden and Trump tied even among potential Georgia voters by 49 percent, but Biden is 50-48 ahead of Trump in Florida and 51-47 in North Carolina. Trump won all three states in 2016, which provide a total of 60 electoral votes between them.
In all three states, the majority of those who said they voted said they voted for Biden: 55 percent in Georgia, and 61 percent each in Florida and North Carolina. Trump garnered majority support among those who had yet to vote.
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