Three people diagnosed with the virus have died. The number of coronavirus-related deaths is now 1,871.
From 2 p.m. today, 37 people will be treated in intensive care units, three more than yesterday. There are 313 Covid-19 patients in hospitals. Yesterday, 314 people were in hospitals with the virus.
The national 14-day incidence rate exceeded 300 per 100,000 population for the first time. The rate is now 302 per 100,000 population.
Cavan still has the highest infection rate per 100,000 population at 1055.5.
The five-day moving average is 1,160 cases per day.
244 of the cases announced today are in Dublin, 104 of the cases were discovered in Galway, 98 in Cork, 92 in Meath, and the remaining 528 cases are spread across the remaining counties.
Of the cases reported in the past 14 days, the mean age was 31 years, with 69% of cases under 45 years old. 116,640 tests were performed in the last seven days with a positivity rate of 6.9%.
Over the past week, an average of over 16,000 Covid-19 tests were performed per day.
Professor Philip Nolan, chairman of the Irish Public Health Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group, said reducing 100 cases a day for the next month would prevent 120 hospitalizations, 15 intensive care unit admissions and 20 deaths.
“Every effort we make over the next six weeks saves hospital stays and saves lives, both in the wider community and in nursing homes.”
He said for every 1,000 cases in the under 45 age group, 12 in 1,000 would be expected to be hospitalized and one in intensive care.
Death from Covid-19 in this age group was very rare – possibly one in 5,000 or 7,000.
The mortality risk increases sharply with age. Prof Nolan said in the age group 45 to 65 years old, 50 would be expected to be hospitalized, 10 to the intensive care unit and three deaths.
In the group of over 65, almost 20% of them would be hospitalized, 30 in the intensive care unit with 30 deaths.
When asked whether it was a realistic goal to reduce the ‘R’ number significantly below 1 after six weeks at Level 5, Prof. Nolan said it was an “absolutely realistic and essential” goal. He said we have to do that.
He said we had done it before and asked everyone to focus on their behavior again towards the end of April and through May.
Prof. Nolan said it was perfectly feasible if we followed these basic measures. He said if we stay home and are extremely careful about leaving the house, we will achieve that goal – we will be at a hundred cases a day or less in early December and then we will be in a completely different position.
The Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Heather Burns said 14,404 cases had been reported in the past 14 days.
She said 649 new outbreaks of the virus were reported for the week ended October 17, 461, or 71%, in households.
Dr. Burns said there were six additional outbreaks in nursing homes and community hospitals, adding that there were now 33 open outbreaks in these settings for a total of 451 cases.
She said that they continue to see increases in mortality. There were 60 deaths in confirmed and probable Covid cases in the first three weeks of October, 24 of which were related to outbreaks in nursing homes
An average of 23 people were hospitalized every day.
Prof. Nolan said the number of tests performed daily continues to increase, and with it, the number of positive tests has increased.
He said positivity rates were less than 1% in July, compared to an average positivity of 7.1% that week. However, yesterday’s rate was down to 5.8% which is an indicator that things are starting to stabilize.
He said the incidence rate for people ages 19 to 24 is 400 per 100,000, and the incidence rate for people 65 and older has doubled or tripled in the past few days.
Prof. Nolan said the reproduction rate is estimated at around 1.3 and 1.4.
The Chief Medical Officer Dr. Tony Holohan reminded people to follow public health guidelines.
He said we have to go back to the way we did it in the spring.
Dr. Holohan said it was important to reiterate that anyone diagnosed with Covid-19 or who is symptomatic or waiting for a test or result must self-isolate.
He said that not only meant staying at home, but staying in her room. He added that if you live with someone in this situation, you must stay home too.
Dr. Holohan reiterated that people’s individual behaviors such as washing their hands, wearing masks and restricting social contacts through measures such as working from home where possible are the best and first line of defense against Covid.
He said the public health system is the next line of defense with its ability to absorb diseases and prevent them from spiraling out of control and spreading further.
He said the scale of the disease as it is occurring at the moment is challenging the system.
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Dr. Holohan said, “We can’t just keep making contact with very large loads of infections and think if we can contact all of these traces we can somehow tolerate a very large load of infection that creates this very large amount of preventable hospital avoidable disease”.
He said as long as there is high transmission in the community it will be impossible to protect nursing homes despite all the measures taken.
He warned that people with a reproductive number of 4 or 5, maybe even 6, would spread through the population, which would be a colossal number if people began to behave again as they did around this time last year had “.
Regarding schools, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Heather Burns said the situation here continues to reflect the international experience that schools are a safe environment.
She said the positivity rate among close contacts in schools is 2.8%, compared to 13% in the community.
There have been five more deaths from Covid-19 and 1,042 new cases of the virus in Northern Ireland in the past 24 hours. The death toll there is now 634.
In the past seven days, 31,034 cases were confirmed, 6,753.
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